Are the Redskins capable of Averaging 21 PPG? (Part Two)

On Tuesday, I beat around the bush for a while before asking the question:(A)re the Redskins capable of upping their PPG total by 5 points if they get no more help from the coaches, defense, or special teams than in 2008?We found that the Redskins, in terms of yards gained per drive, fit right into the mold of some average offenses from the 2008 season, including NFC East rivals Dallas and Philadelphia (for most of the year, the Giants offense was far beyond the realm of average, among the league leaders).Today, the goal is to come up with some sort of answer to the question in the headline of this two part series.In doing drive stats research for the first part of this article, I realized that the Redskins were not alone in the type of offensive environment that Jim Zorn created that values win probability over points maximization. A surprise playoff team from last year who didn't totally crumble in the month of December appears to have enjoyed the same philosophy. That team: the Miami Dolphins.If you saw the Ravens dismantle the Dolphins twice last year, you'll know simply from common opponents that the Redskins were at least as good a team as the 11-win Miami team last year. That's not really in doubt. Miami also finished their season playing their worst ball of the season, although not quite at the level that the Redskins were. However, Miami's offense was better than the Redskins offense was for 16 games. By drives, the Dolphins ranked:9th in yards per13th in points per1st in turnovers against10 in DSR, the percentage of 1st and 10s converted into another 1st and 10The only NFL QB who was intercepted less frequently than Chad Pennington in 2008 was Jason Campbell. The difference between the Dolphins and the Redskins in drive efficiency was the same as the difference between the Redskins and the:27th ranked Bears in Yd/Drive32nd ranked Bengals in Pts/Drive15th ranked Chiefs in Turnovers/Drive26th ranked Titans in DSRThe point I'm trying to show here is that the Dolphins were better than the Redskins at their own offensive game last year. Do you want to guess how many PPG the Dolphins averaged last year? You can probably get close:The 2008 Miami Dolphins averaged 21.6 PPG. They were also the 7th most efficient offense per FO's DVOA metric. The message is clear: if Jim Zorn's philosophy is to maximize win percentage at the expense of points, the Redskins offense needs to produce at the level that the Miami Dolphins did last year in order to be a super bowl contender. You see, the Dolphins were not a super bowl contender last year, but they also did not sport a defense anywhere near as good as the defense the Redskins currently have. However, the Dolphins defense only gave up 19.8 PPG, or almost equal to what the Redskins defense did last year, while ranking just a hair behind them in DVOA. The Redskins defense is going to be much improved this year.Clearly, the Redskins are capable of averaging 21 PPG. The Dolphins proved that it was possible with limited offensive talent. But let's conclude this analysis by trying to figure out where those additional points will come from:Jason Campbell needs to add about 500 yards (GOAL: 3,500yd, 20 TDs, 8 INTs) without throwing too many more INTs. If he does this, he can become the 3:1 TD/INT QB the Redskins need.It's acceptable for Clinton Portis to have some decline, and the offense to improve overall. The key is that he has to convert first downs at the exact same rate he already is. Clinton Portis' YPA fell to 4.2 (GOAL: 4.2 YPA, 9 TDs) after the final 8 games, and we can live with that kind of production. His health is the main thing that we need from himThe Miami Dolphins did not have one receiver match the value of...Antwaan Randle El last season, but that's a deceiving stat because their receiving corps were much better than ours. The key was three different guys who could all convert on third down: Ted Ginn, Greg Camarrillo, and rookie Davone Bess. The Redskins have two guys in Moss and Randle El who can do this, they'll need a third as well. (GOAL: any 3rd receiver; 40 catches, 2 TDs, Catch Rate of 65% or better).The Tight Ends were the valuable receivers on the Miami roster. Anthony Fasano and David Martin combined to be Chad Pennington's two favorite red zone and third down targets, they combined for more than 60 highly valuable receptions and more than 900 yards with 11 combined TDs. Are you reading this, Fred Davis? (GOAL: Cooley and Davis combined; 100 receptions, 1,000 receving yards, 10 TDs).Of course, the ability to reach the above numbers is contingent on the offensive line closing the gap between ours and theirs. The Miami OL was not much better at the conclusion of 2007 than was the Redskins OL at the conclusion of last year. They added three parts last year, one of them was former Redskins practice squad player Ike Ndukwe, the other two were FA LG Justin Smiley and the first overall draft pick, OT Jake Long. The Redskins never had the benefit of the first overall pick, and they used the pick they did have on defense. Smiley's performance was mission critical to the Miami offensive line's improvement last year, and the Redskins have a similar addition in Derrick Dockery. The Dolphins OL was otherwise weak in the interior last season, which gives Redskins fans hope that we can have an effective offense with the aging duo of Randy Thomas and Casey Rabach in the middle. As bad as that duo was last year, they weren't worse than what Miami was running out there. To their credit, Miami has since improved on their interior OL, but the key to the Miami pass blocking is with the offensive tackles.The Redskins might not get great OL play this year. But they passed up obvious oppertunity to improve in the middle of the line for the shot to improve on the outside. By all means, they MUST improve at tackle because that's the only area on the OL they gave themselves a chance to improve. And so the goals of offensive production above become very easy to reach--more likely than not--if the Redskins get acceptable play from their offensive tackles. This is the one position where the Redskins do not have the resources that the Dolphins' offense did to improve. And while the question marks are not quite what they are at the WR position, there's fewer quality options with upside.So imagine that. After a week's worth of analysis: the Redskins are more than capable of scoring 21 PPG, if only the offensive line pulls it's weight. They have all the other tools, except on the OL where an improvement must be made in pass protection without losing the drive blocking ability in the run game. If Jason Campbell gets remotely adequate pass protection, 21 PPG isn't a pipe dream -- it's a likely outcome. If the pass pro doesn't improve, the Redskins are probably good for 19 PPG, which makes them a borderline playoff team and not a likely threat to win the NFC East (more likely 2nd or 3rd place). Crazy analysis sometimes arrives at the most logical conclusions.