Originally written December 09, 2012 on The Football Fan Spot:
Atlanta Falcons (11-1) at Carolina Panthers (3-9) I really like using trends to pick NFL games. Not all games have the same weight on a team’s schedule and games don’t always mean the same thing for the teams playing it. This is why upsets happen. However, there aren’t any really good ones in play here, except this. Teams are 49-37 ATS as home favorites after a loss as road favorites since 1989, including 14-8 ATS as divisional home dogs when the previous game was non-divisional. That applies to the Panthers, who have gone from road favorites to home dogs in just one week because of one loss, which really didn’t have much to do with them, as the Chiefs were galvanized by the Jovan Belcher situation. However, that really assumes the Panthers don’t deserve to be home dogs here, which they do. In fact, we may be getting line value with the Falcons, who are rested. Teams are 118-100 ATS on a Sunday following a Thursday game. The Falcons rank 4th in net points per drive at 0.64, while th...
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