Bengals scouting director's recent comments prove why Cincinnati shouldn't trade down in the first round

A potentially rare opportunity is in front of the Cincinnati Bengals, the owners of the 18th pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.

Most draft classes feature a limited number of prospects with first-round grades. This leads to teams drafting in the back half of the first round with minimal top prospects to chose from, and usually spurs those clubs to trade back to avoid reaching with their pick.

This year's class, according to one of Cincinnati's main personnel members, is different in a way that happens to benefit the team.

Bengals.com's Geoff Hobson recently interviewed Steven Radicevic, the team's director of pro personnel, about this year's talented draft class. Radicevic mentioned that this year's class is strong at the top, and teams that pick later in the first round may have the chance at drafting players that usually go much earlier in past years.

"I think it's a strong draft," Raicevic told Hobson. "Probably one of the better ones just positionally across the board. It's a deep draft, except maybe for a couple of positions. But I think it's probably one of the better drafts that I've been around where if you're in the top 25, you're getting a player you would normally get in the top 10." 

That's a pretty telling observation, and one that should prevent the Bengals from moving down from their original spot in the first round.

Why trading down is not ideal for the Bengals this year

When the Bengals do make moves on draft weekend, it's typically to acquire more picks rather than to sacrificing them. There have been a handful of exceptions to this outside of the first round, but the Bengals almost always stay put inside the first 32 picks. 

The last time the club traded down within the first round on the day of the draft was back in 2012. Cincinnati dropped from the 21st pick to the 27th pick and received the 93rd pick in return. The two picks became guard Kevin Zeitler, and defensive tackle Brandon Thompson. Cincinnati also swapped its 12th pick in 2018 for the Buffalo Bills' 21st pick in the Cordy Glenn trade conducted a month prior to that draft. That pick became Billy Price.

The range from picks 12-21 typically falls in the purgatory between clear first-round talent, and players with far more questionable profiles. But that's not how Radicevic personally sees this year's class.

"I feel like you're going get a guy you have a legitimate first-round grade on rather than in years past, where if you were between 18-25, you're going to get a guy you've got a second-round grade on," Radicevic said.

If the Bengals feel confident that a first-round talent is likely to be available 18 picks into the draft, it would be sinful of them to not capitalize on such a unique scenario. The state of the franchise greatly factors into play here.

Cincinnati needs to find more first-round talents 

The Bengals are entering a phase where finding value will be crucial. Joe Burrow's contract is only going to take up more of the pie as it progresses, and Ja'Marr Chase will soon follow. Their willingness to go out and sign high-priced free agents to elevate the team is already limited by their financial principles. This strategy will only become more difficult when the prices of their own players increase.

The best way to elevate the roster is by nailing the draft, especially towards the top. Players like Burrow and Chase, both of whom were sure-fire first-round picks, did so much to raise the floor and ceiling of the team. Adding prospects of their caliber on cost-controlled contracts is by far the best way to keep the team in contending form, along with sustaining depth as well.

This is tough for teams who find themselves as perennial playoff contenders as making the playoffs ensures a first-round selection no higher than 19th. The Bengals have made the postseason twice in the last three years, and barely missed out this past year. Cincinnati should not expect to be missing the playoffs very often with a healthy Burrow under center. They're picking 18th after Burrow only played in 10 games, and he was dealing with a calf injury during half of them. 

Picking high in the draft order is not what any team wants during the season when the goal is to win the Super Bowl. The Bengals fell shorter than expected in 2023, and the consolation prize is the chance to add a player they wouldn't normally get to add at this juncture. Radicevic also believes this to be the case in the second round.

"I feel like you're going to feel pretty good about those first two picks," Radicevic said. "They're guys that have legitimate first- and legitimate second-round grades where you're not reaching for a player there."

There's no telling what future draft classes will look like. All the Bengals can do now is recognize the situation they're in, and take advantage. If they expect to be in the Super Bowl conversation with Burrow, that will lead to many drafts low in the order, eliminating chances of snagging true first-round talents. 

This year looks like the exception.

The Bengals could find a trade partner and move back a couple spots in the first round and still land a player with a higher grade than expected, but this class is unusually stacked in a way that can make up for the Bengals' middling 2023 campaign.  

If a blue-chip player is there, don't call another team. Call the player.