Chalk Talk: Seven reasons to be optimistic in 2024

Last season, Wilson posted a 112.5 passer rating when throwing 20-plus yards down the field, which included six touchdown passes to only one interception. 20 of his 23 completions downfield were considered big time throws by Pro Football Focus. Wilson also ranked 11th among qualifying passers in big time throw percentage and also had the 11th-best percentage in turnover worthy plays when throwing deep. Not quite as elite as he used to be, but still an efficient and productive deep-ball passer.

Also last season, Fields posted a 114.6 passer rating when throwing the ball 20-plus yards downfield, which included 18 big time throws to only one turnover worthy play, according to Pro Football Focus. Eight of Fields' 16 touchdown passes in 2023 came on these deep throws. In addition, both Wilson and Fields are good athletes and can use their legs and strong arms to make plays outside the pocket. The Steelers have missed having a quarterback that can make big time plays outside the structure of the offense.

More importantly, having two quarterbacks who are superb at throwing deep will help keep defenses honest. Because, even though the Steelers have a better quarterback room this season ...

DON'T FORGET ABOUT THE RUNNING GAME

This is the ultimate strength of the team. There are no two ways around that. Just as it was last season, this offense will go as far as the running game allows them. No matter what offense Arthur Smith installs, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will be a crucial part of what the Steelers do offensively. This is still a run-first team, and the Steelers have one of the best running back duos in the NFL.

No, that's not hyperbole or reaching in any way. The Steelers and Lions were the only teams to have multiple running backs surpass 1,000 yards from scrimmage. And, the Steelers did that in spite of a midseason change at offensive coordinator. This duo can compete with any other in the NFL. And, they stand a good chance of being successful running the ball, regardless of how they go about attacking defenses on the ground.

Smith previously ran wide zone systems as offensive coordinator in Tennessee and as head coach in Atlanta. And, it's worth noting that Smith's two seasons as the offensive coordinator in Tennessee were the two best seasons of Derrick Henry's career, all while running a wide zone system. The good news there is Harris has predominantly been a better outside zone runner throughout his college and pro careers. He could be the next Alabama running back that thrives under Smith.

However, if the Smith and the Steelers prefer to switch to more gap/man concepts, as some other offenses are already doing to take advantage of smaller, faster defenses, both Harris and Warren stand to benefit from it.

After the Steelers fired Matt Canada last season, the offense shifted away from a predominant outside zone scheme to a more balanced attack that included much more gap/man concepts. And Harris, typically a better zone runner, reaped the benefit of this change. From the time Eddie Faulkner and Mike Sullivan took over offensive coordinator and play calling duties through the end of the season, Harris gained 269 yards on 58 carries in man/gap concepts, an average of 4.64 yards per carry. That's an improvement of 1.32 yards per carry.

For Warren, he's recorded better numbers running gap/man concepts over zone, especially in 2023. Warren averaged a respectable 3.91 yards per carry with a 46.3% success rate in zone concepts last season, but that pales in comparison to his 6.98 yards per carry and 51.5% success rate in gap/man concepts.

Either way you slice it, the Steelers already had good running game in 2023. Now, with an upgrade at offensive coordinator and potentially some additions to the offensive line in the upcoming draft, maybe the Steelers can become more efficient.

A NEW QUEEN

The Steelers' big splash of the offseason is signing Patrick Queen to a three-year, $41-million contract. Not only does that benefit the Steelers because they stole him away from the Ravens, but it also gives the Steelers a much needed boost on the second level of the defense.

Let's be honest. There hasn't been a linebacker that's dressed in black and gold that's been able to cover ground like Queen can since Ryan Shazier suffered his career-ending injury. Queen possesses the ability to both run sideline to sideline and cover the flat at a high level:

The Steelers have needed a guy like this in the middle of the defense for a long time. Queen is an elite athlete with great speed. Couple that with a high football IQ, and you have a player like Queen that can make extraordinary plays like this while moving laterally. In today's game, with the way offenses deploy speed to test defenses horizontally, having a guy like Queen is a must.

But, the football IQ is just as valuable as the physical abilities:

This is a great example of Queen showcasing his instincts in run defense, and using his superb speed and athleticism to make a phenomenal play. Many other linebackers could easily get lost in the wash, trying to defend laterally along the second level and shoot a gap. That's what offenses are trying to do when running a zone concept like this one. However, Queen improvises and takes a different route outside the weak-side tackle and is able to get to Harris for no gain on third-and-1, forcing a punt.

Queen is by no means a perfect player. But, he has plenty of traits that he's put on film that don't require a star such as Roquan Smith beside him in order to be effective. And, more importantly, he adds some star power to the second level of the defense. Which reminds me ...

DON'T FORGET ABOUT THE STARS

This might be an obvious reason. Nonetheless, it's still more than valid.

Regardless of the effect PFF has on voters for Defensive Player of the Year, T.J. Watt is the best defensive player on the planet. I don't need to break down any film to tell you that. When Watt is on the field for the Steelers, this team wins much more often than they lose. He's already put himself atop the conversation as the best pass rusher in Steelers history, as he's already only 3.5 sacks away from 100 in his career.

Then, add Minkah Fitzpatrick to the mix, who's coming off a rather disappointing season. Fitzpatrick didn't intercept a pass and only had three passes defensed in 2023. However, the three-time All-Pro missed seven games last year due to multiple injuries, and there's no doubt he played some games at well less than 100%. It's a solid bet to think a healthy Fitzpatrick would put up numbers closer to 2022's output rather than 2023.

In addition, signing DeShon Elliott in free agency might have a positive impact on how Teryl Austin can use Fitzpatrick. Elliott's a really solid player that can be trusted in multiple roles. That can let Minkah be Minkah much more often.

And, I'd be remiss to leave out Cam Heyward here. I know he'll be 35 years old this season. I know he's coming off a season in which he missed six games and played 11 games on one leg. But, I'm still inclined to believe that Heyward can still look like the Heyward of old should he maintain his health.

If there's a player on this team you should never bet against, it's Heyward. Until he officially decides to stop playing, he's earned enough respect to think that there's a chance he can still play at a high level, regardless of where he is in his career.

This team has star power. That always helps. Sure, you'd like to see a star or two on the offensive side of the ball. But, if a team doesn't have an elite quarterback (the Steelers don't), the best bet to try to win a Super Bowl is with superb defense. And, the Steelers may even add another star to that defense this season.

FINALLY, A SHUTDOWN CORNERBACK

It's really not an overreaction. Joey Porter Jr. showed all the signs of being a true shutdown cornerback as a rookie. And, that's not just because he rightfully earned a nomination as finalist for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

By season's end, Porter played a total of 535 coverage snaps and was targeted only 53 times, which is 10.1 snaps per target. In other words, quarterbacks weren't throwing in his direction, even though Porter earned the right to follow around the opponent's top receiver a vast majority of the time. On those 53 targets, Porter allowed 24 catches, 45.3% of the targets, for 352 yards and one touchdown. And, quarterbacks posted a 65.9 passer rating when targeting Porter. 

Want to understand the significance of these numbers? In Sauce Gardner's rookie year -- a year in which Gardner won Defensive Rookie of the Year for three different news outlets, was named first team All-Pro and finished eighth in Defensive Player of the Year voting -- he played 642 coverage snaps and was targeted 73 times (8.8 snaps per target), allowing 33 catches for 361 yards and one touchdown. That's 45.2% of the targets that were caught, an almost identical number to Porter's. Gardner had two interceptions (Porter only had one), which helped Gardner post a ridiculous 53.5 passer rating against when targeted.

Porter's numbers weren't quite as good as Gardner's. The Jets' star cornerback not only had one more interception, he had 14 pass breakups while Porter only had six. But, Porter was very much in the same ballpark as Gardner. And, for a guy known for his ability in press coverage, he really showed growth in a number of areas, including the ability to stick with receivers while lining up off the ball:

Nothing overly physical here. Porter's just running with Hopkins, staying in his hip pocket and forces Will Levis -- who was looking at Hopkins as his first read here -- to hold onto the ball longer than he wanted to, and Watt ends up with a red zone sack.

In addition, Porter's tackling improved over the course of his rookie campaign. Prior to becoming a starter in Week 8, Porter missed 36.4% of his tackle attempts. After he became a starter, his missed only 5.6% of tackles.

Regardless, having a shutdown cornerback is a true luxury in this league. Not every team has one. But the team's that do have a much better chance of having a great defense.

LAST YEAR'S ROOKIE CLASS

Porter isn't the only potential stud from the Steelers' 2023 rookie class. First-round pick Broderick Jones became a full-time starter in Week 8, switching to right tackle from his natural spot on the left side. Jones flashed his ability as a solid run blocker, becoming a big part of the reason why the Steelers' running game took off midseason. While playing on his opposite side, that's quite an accomplishment.

Jones still has a bit to work on in pass protection. Anyone who did their homework on Jones coming out of Georgia knew he was more polished in run blocking and needed refinement in pass protection. That showed up on film as a rookie:

Jones allowed four sacks in 2023. But, the good news for the future is all four of those sacks came playing on the right side. Of Jones' 766 snaps, 122 were on the left side, mostly in the loss to the Texans and home win over the Ravens in Weeks 4-5. But, Jones didn't allow any sacks in that very, very small sample size on the left side. And, outside of four snaps in the season opener against the 49ers, those snaps were his first in the NFL. No sacks and two quarterback hits is something to build on, especially since Omar Khan specifically said this offseason that Jones will eventually play on the left side. There's plenty of reason for optimism for the 2023's first-round pick.

If Porter isn't the most likely to have the biggest jump of the second-year players on the roster, Keeanu Benton might be the best bet. The Steelers love this kid, and for good reason.

Despite only recording one sack, Benton has a good arsenal of pass-rushing attacks. He recorded 14 hurries, seven quarterback hits and two passes batted down at the line of scrimmage. While comparing those numbers to the likes of teammate Larry Ogunjobi, they don't seem significant as Ogunjobi posted three sacks, 27 hurries, five quarterback hits and two passes batted down. However, Benton recorded his numbers while playing 198 fewer pass rush snaps. And, even for the analytic nerds that hold Pro Football Focus' pass rush win rate in such high esteem, Benton had won 10.5% of his pass rushes compared to Ogunjobi's 8.4%.

Again, for those who did their homework on Benton, we knew he was more polished as a pass rusher. But, for a guy who's asked to play all along the defensive line, there has to be some ability to eat up space against the run:

This was in the wild-card game against the Bills, a few months after the previous example against the Raiders. Watch Benton absorb the double team, hold his ground, then once the tackle peels off to block Elandon Roberts on the second level, Benton beats the guard to snatch James Cook with one arm, tackling him for a minimal gain of three yards.

These kinds of plays are what should get people excited about Benton. He surprised no one by becoming a contributor in the Steelers' pass rush. But, his growth as a run defender was very promising.

For the sake of time, I'm not even mentioning Nick Herbig's contributions on special teams and as the occasional third edge rusher. I'm not even mentioning Darnell Washington, who is already a solid blocking tight end and could stand to benefit from Smith's system. I'm not even mentioning Cory Trice Jr., a player with a lot of intrigue after a good showing in training camp before suffering a season-ending knee injury.

Last year's rookie class helped inject much needed youth on this roster. And, it could help the Steelers improve in 2024 as they all are expected to take significant leaps as second-year players.

OMAR'S NOT DONE

Last, but definitely not least. Khan has earned a lot of the praise he's gotten since taking over as the Steelers' general manager. Despite his reluctance to describe himself as such, his aggressive approach to the job has put the Steelers in better position during his two seasons on the job. Despite 9-8 and 10-7 records, there's a strong argument the Steelers have overachieved a bit. Teams with poor quarterback play shouldn't be in the playoff picture. Yet, the Steelers have been. Tomlin is a big reason for that, but Khan deserves praise, too.

After another active free agency period, Khan is about to embark on his second draft as GM. And, once that's done, I expect more moves to be made to fill out the rest of the roster. Yes, as we sit at the time this article is published, there are holes at center, receiver and cornerback. Both tackle and defensive line could also use upgrades.

But, the offseason isn't won in March. Khan still probably has a couple tricks up his sleeve. By the time we get to OTAs in mid-to-late May, it's a good bet Khan will have this roster better positioned than it is right now, which is even more reason to be optimistic about 2024.