New Orleans Saints 11-5, Division Winner Seed #3
The Saints, Packers and Patriots thrive off having both elite playcallers and upper-echelon weapons. The Saints and Packers have the most continuity -with New England having four key players in their first or second year in the system – and none of them have any players definitively past their prime. I like Green Bay’s running backs best. While Tom Brady gets a slight nod over Aaron Rodgers as the best quarterback of the group, Brees plays games indoors and I predict – because of that – the Saints will finish with the most points in the NFL (besides, the Pats will be so far ahead in contests, they may just run out the clock).
Schedule/Predictions: @ GB L, ?vs. CHI W, vs. HOU W, @ JAX W, @ CAR W, @ TB L, vs. IND W, @ STL L, vs. TB W, @ ATL W, BYE, vs. NYG W, vs. DET W, @ TEN W, @ MIN L, vs. ATL W, vs. CAR L.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-6, Wild Card Seed #6
Three Factors:
1. Continuity. The Buccaneers lost just two starters from last season and – due to injuries – have multiple starter-level players at some positions. When you add to that the fact that almost no player peaks in his first few years – and that Kellen Winslow is the healthiest he’s been in a long time, this team could be scary good.
2. Play-calling. I have Raheem Morris listed as the 3rd-best defensive playcaller. I have Greg Olson as the 9th-best offensive playcaller, as he was able to call a conservative offense for a unit full of rookies and still be able to maximize what they all did best.
3. Lack of elite offensive opponents. For the second straight season, the Buccaneers have very few elite offenses on the schedule. The Buccaneers play four games total against the Saints, Packers and Texans (I predict them to be 1-3 in those games) but generally play teams that either pass the ball well (Cowboys, Colts), run the ball well (Jacksonville, Minnesota) or are just bad. It helps that this already stout defense (9th with 318 points allowed; only one of their last 8 opponents scored more than 20 in regulation) of Tampa Bay gets Tanard Jackson back from suspension. They also added two of my top 7 pass-rushers in this past draft – Da’Quan Bowers and the electric Adrian Clayborn – , which is proven to be a role that rookies can fill right away (Orakpo, Matthews, Hali) with the right coaching.
Schedule/Predictions: vs. DET W, @ MIN L, vs. ATL W, vs. IND L, @SF W, vs. NO W, vs. CHI @ London W, BYE, @ NO L, vs. HOU L, @ GB L, @ TEN W, vs. CAR W, @ JAX W, vs. DAL L, @ CAR W, @ ATL W.
Atlanta Falcons 7-9
Atlanta won a lot of close games despite having an average defense. They lost RB Jerrious Norwood and T Harvey Dahl but added DE Ray Edwards. I expect the offense to be really good by the end of the year and Matt Ryan probably fits this scheme better than Freeman would but I think Freeman’s skills allow him to win in every situation. The weaknesses in the secondary shall be exploited by Matt Schaub, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Josh Freeman and Donovan McNabb.
Schedule/Predictions: @ CHI W, vs. PHI L, @ TB L, @ SEA W, vs. GB L, vs. CAR W, @ DET W, BYE, @ IND L, vs. NO L, vs. TEN W, vs. MIN L, @ HOU L, @ CAR W, vs. JAX W, @ NO L, vs. TB L.
Carolina Panthers 4-12
Carolina’s entire season hinges on their offensive playcalling. They weren’t putting up monster numbers 2007-2009 (267, 414, and 315 points) but it was still odd to see how incredibly inept they were in 2010 (196 points) with mostly the same players. They brought all of them back – except for David Gettis on IR – and added Greg Olsen, Jeremy Shockey, and Kealoha Pilares. I’ll get zero credit if they go 11-5 but I honestly think that’s their ceiling. However, they will need to get consistent, aggressive play-calling – and that would have been hard enough to pull off with Moore or Clausen being asked to improve, too – which is going to be difficult with a raw rookie QB.
Schedule/Predictions: @ ARI W, vs. GB L, vs. JAX L, @ CHI L, vs. NO L, @ ATL L, vs. WAS L, vs. MIN L, BYE, vs. TEN W, @ DET W, @ IND L, @ TB L, vs. ATL L, @ HOU L, vs. TB L, @ NO W.
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