I’m calling a mulligan Juan…
2011 Recap: Many would think that Rivers season was a disaster, but he finished as the #8 fantasy QB in points per game. To put that perspective he finished as the 5th, 9th, and 6th best passer between 2008-10. So he fell right in line with what owners should be used to with him. The problem was his ADP was 4th for QBs and when Newton/Stafford broke out, Rivers looked even more pedestrian. Rivers actually threw MORE passes in 2011 than he had the previous season, but his completion % dropped and his INTs went up. He did throw for 300 yards or more in 6 games and had double digit TDs in half of his contests. Many in the organization felt Rivers may have had an injury and as the season progressed so did his numbers. Could be a correlation.
What’s Changed: Norv’s back, that’s for sure. That’s a good and bad thing for Rivers. Obviously knowing the offense and considering that it is such a high octane machine is good for fantasy purposes. The bad thing is teams that face them often have gotten a bead on them. The AFC West gave up 3.5 points per game less than the other 10 teams they faced. Gone is Vincent Jackson and in is Robert Meachem. Bob Meachem underachieved in New Orleans, but the Chargers think he can be a #1. They also brought in Eddie Royal who could be another viable option.
Outlook: If Rivers could have maintained his yards per attempt from 2010 last season, he would have hit 5,000 yards passing. If Rivers could have maintained his TD average, he would of tossed 36 TDs. Seems like a lot of IFs and BUTs in this article, but if (see) you can get a QB with the upside of Rivers at 67, you should pounce. If grabbing 2 stud RBs early and getting yourself some top 20 WRs in the next 2 rounds if your gig, then you are probably going to wait on a QB. Rivers is the perfect target for YOU in fantasy drafts.
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