Originally posted on Football Nation  |  Last updated 12/2/12
Matthew Stafford is currently third in passing yards in the NFL with 3,429, and faces off against a lack-luster defense this weekend in the Indianapolis Colts. We know Stafford has one of the best arms in the league, but how good can he actually do against the Colts defense this Sunday?Stafford has an opportunity to pass Drew Brees and Matt Ryan for the lead in passing yards, as they have already played their game for this week. Just this stat shows how good of a quarterback Stafford can really be, but let's take a better look at how good he can be vs. Indianapolis. Stafford ranks 8th in ESPN.com leagues in points, which may not be too impressive, but let's remember who he is playing. The Colts defense is ranked 19th in the league with passing yards given up per game, at 233.8. Looking at Stafford's numbers, he is averaging 311.7 yards per game, which easily exceeds what the Colts give up. One thing that is a problem with Stafford is his touchdown to interception ratio. This is the main thing that brings down his fantasy value. Stafford has 14 TD's this year, which isn't horrible, but you would expect more since he throws the ball so much. Stafford also has 10 interceptions, which also isn't too bad, but the lack of touchdowns he has makes it seem much worse than it actually is.Fortunately for Stafford and his fantasy owners, the Colts have a pretty weak secondary that gives up big plays down the field very often. As long as Calvin Johnson gets down the field plenty, Stafford shouldn't have a problem points-wise this week.As long as Stafford looks for big plays down the field, as well as works in some intermediate play, he should have a good day in fantasy. My predictions for Stafford this Sunday are 330 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. That would put him somewhere in the middle to upper 30s.
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