Originally posted on Football Nation  |  Last updated 9/7/12

Week 1 is often a surprise. Raise your hand, who had Kevin Ogletree? Exactly! 

So we will walk this precarious balance of who you should start. It gets harder, but that's half the fun. 

This is of course not telling you what you know. It is advising you on those of whom you maybe waffling. 

5. DeAngelo Williams

Normally I would not advise starting anyone in a running back by committee backfield.

But Jonathan Stewart is nursing a high-ankle sprain. This should mean more touches for Williams.  Yes, Carolina bought in Mike Tolbert in the offseason, But Tolbert has looked listless at best. So I am still sticking with Williams. 

Tampa Bay had the worst run defense in the NFL last year. They allowed 25 touchdowns for running backs in 2011. This is their first game with a new coach. 

This may be the first and only time to count on Williams to get you double digits fantasy points.  There is a lot of competition in that backfield, including the quarterback. Look closely at Williams for your flex option this week.

4. Darren McFadden

McFadden and the Raiders are playing the San Diego Chargers. 

Last year in seven games McFadden had 614 yards and four touchdowns. 

This game looks to be a shootout.  In PPR leagues McFadden is going to be money for you. 

But even in traditional leagues he is a stud. You can't sit him on the bench.

3. Jay Cutler

Chances are you drafted Cutler as yourNo. 2 quarterback. So this depends on who you drafted as your No. 1. If you have Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers you definitely have to play them. 

Anyone else and Cutler is looking pretty good. He has Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey. And he is playing the newly-revamped Indianapolis Colts. 

Yes, the Colts acquired Vontae Davis from Miami. But the Colts are also under construction. 

2. Buffalo Bills Defense

The New York Jets are the only team that did not score a touchdown during preseason. Yes, the rhetoric claims they were holding back for the regular season. But doesn't every team hold back in preseason? 

The Bills are waiting for the unveiling of the wildcat. They aren't worried. Mark Sanchez has appeared shaky all preseason and his offensive line is not giving him any confidence.

The newly acquired Mario Williams will not give him a confidence boost.

While Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill will be his wide receivers, it won't help if he spends most of the game on his back.

Mario Williams and pass-rushing specialist Mark Anderson look to elevate the Bills' defense while decimating the shaky confidence of Sanchez.

1. Justin Blackmon

Rookie wide receiver and shaky quarterback anchor 5-11 squad.  But are they?  The first match-up for the Jacksonville Jaguars will be the Minnesota Vikings. With much respect to Jared Allen the Vikings' defense hasn't been torching anyone lately. 

Although they accumulated 50 sacks last year they ranked 26th in pass defense. 

Mainly because cornerback Chris Cook missed the last 10 games of the season. Easily the best of the group it remains to be seen if Cook is back in playing shape. At that end he will most likely be covering Blackmon. 

Blackmon has looked good. And he seems to be Gabbert's main man. Also the threat of Rashad Jennings and the possibility of Maurice Jones-Drew making a special appearance should keep the Vikings honest. That should translate to Blackmon seeing the end zone at least twice in the game. 

If you have any questions ask in the comments.

And then for a good time follow me on Twitter @neverenoughglt for daily links to informative fantasy sites.

Dominate!

 



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