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Since I wrote the QB analysis first, you may want to review some of the initial points made in that article before reading this. For Team Defense-Special Teams a few things I would keep in mind when drafting a player is:
- SCORING: League scoring can vary significantly. Some leagues give points for return yardage (ex. 1 point for every 50 kick return yards), some may give 1 point per sack, others may give 3 points per sack. There is a lot of variation in fantasy points for points allowed. In our scoring we are giving 6 points for every return TD, 2 points for blocked kicks/punts, 2 points per safety, 6 points for every defensive TD, 2 points for fumble recoveries, 2 points for interceptions, 1 point per sack and various points depending on points allowed.
- OPPONENT QUALITY: A very mediocre defense might allow over 21 points per game, but they still could rank highly in fantasy leagues because of a quality return game and they play a schedule filled with interception prone QBs. While for the most part your individual star fantasy players end up being Pro Bowlers, you often get great fantasy team Defense/ST units that are not great â??realâ? defenses.
If you are an AccuScore Fantasy PLUS subscriber you get access to the FANTASY GUIDE DATA.xls file which will be updated at least once a week starting now and all the way through the end of the season. Here is a sample of what youâ??ll get in the file:
RANKINGS: DEF/STs are ranked based on total fantasy points for the remainder of the season. At the beginning of the season every player, except those that are already suspended or injured are expected to play 16 games. But come Week 5, 6 when players are on a bye or some are injured you will get players with high rankings based on fantasy average but they may have fewer games left lowering their actual TOTAL ranking. You will also see their production for each quarter of the season. This provides a quick gauge of if a player is set to have a hot start, cold playoff, peak mid-season, etc. You will also get each playerâ??s forecasted season statistics (for the remainder of the season). This allows you to see why certain players are more highly rated than others.
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The OPP column is the average power rating of each playerâ??s opponentsâ?? overall offense. The leagueâ??s best offensive power rating is 100% and the worst is 0%. Again, strength of schedule is often THE determining factor explaining why a player is playing well above or well below expectations.
WEEKLY FLUCTUATIONS: Finally, you get each playerâ??s week-by-week fantasy point forecast along with their scheduled opponent.
FANTASY DEFENSE/ST ANALYSIS
The analysis below is based on our initial simulations run in early June 2009. The data is updated minimally every week during the pre-season and as much as every day during the regular season. AccuScore Fantasy PLUS subscribers should download the data regularly (FANTASY GUIDE DATA.xls).
GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Packers are AccuScoreâ??s #1 Fantasy Defense? No, they are our #1 Fantasy Defense AND SPECIAL TEAMS unit. The Packers are forecasted to allow 22.5 points per game, which is below average. The reason why they are rated so highly is their return game is capable of scoring several return TDs. Green Bay also excels in defensive scoring. They led the league last year in INTTDs and total DEFTDs. They play in the NFC North and you can expect plenty of interceptions from whoever starts for Detroit, Jay Cutler in Chicago, Brett Favre in Minnesota. Opposing offenses have an average power rating of just 35% and a lot of offensive power rating depends on turnovers.
One warning about the Packers. Since their DEF/ST quality is based on stats like defensive TDs and return TDs you have to expect that while their overall rating may be #1, do not expect consistency. Expect this defense to score 10 to 12 points for 3 or 4 weeks and then explode for 25 in a week where they have 2 INTs and 1 Defensive TD.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The Steelers are forecasted for 1 fewer fantasy point than the Packers. I would definitely select the Steelers over Green Bay because they should be far more consistent. A team like Pittsburgh consistently holds the opposition to 17 points or less and they consistently get at least 2 or 3 sacks. They do not have an explosive return man which is why they do not rate as the #1 Fantasy DEF/ST.
The Steelers lead the league in points allowed this year. They were awesome defensively last year when they faced teams that won 53% of their games. Their 2009 opponents only won 43% of their 2008 games. A light schedule should help Pittsburgh dominate defensively.
TENNESSEE TITANS
The Titans lost Albert Haynesworth to free agency and this will definitely not help. The team also has a slightly tougher schedule in 2009. That said, the defense still has plenty of talent. Jason Jones had 3.5 sacks in Week 16 vs. the Steelers when Haynesworth was out. The Titans should have over 40 sacks again this season and be amongst the Top 3 in the league in interceptions. All of this is enough to keep Tennessee in the Top 3 DEF/STs.
NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants lost Osi Umenyiora last season but still had 42 sacks. They should exceed that total this year and their impressive pass rush is the key to the Giants being an elite DEF-ST unit. One thing that limits the Giantsâ?? potential is their tough schedule. They face opponents with an average power rating of 58% as their division includes potent offenses in Dallas and Philadelphia. A lot of the defenseâ??s success will depend on the offenseâ??s ability to limit turnovers and build leads. If they can play 4th quarters against offenses that need to pass to get back into the game, the Giantsâ?? DL can tee off on the opposing QBs which is the best way to get sacks and fumbles.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Shawne Merriman is back and the Chargers should improve on their 28 sacks in â??08. They also have the explosive Darren Sproles to return kicks and punts and Sproles has a good chance of having a couple return TDs. They also have Antonio Cromartie who two seasons ago had 10 interceptions. One reason why Cromartie only had 2 INTs in 2008 was the Chargers could not pressure the QB. If their pass pressure is effective, then it will rush QBs into some bad decisions or off-balanced throws which will result in plenty of interceptions for Cromartie and the team.
DALLAS COWBOYS
DeMarcus Ware had more sacks than the Bengals, Browns and Chiefs. He is a true terror and the Cowboys should have at least another 50 sacks in 2009. The Cowboys do face plenty of very good offenses which is why the opposing offensive power rating is a high 63%. This means that even if the Cowboys are good they will likely allow more points than most elite defenses. The rest of the Cowboysâ?? DEF/ST stats are not as good as the other top fantasy DEF/STs, but as long as Ware is healthy the team is going to rack up points. Sacks are only given 1 point in our scoring. If your league gives 2 or 3 points per sack then the Cowboysâ?? move up the rankings.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Ravens lost Rex Ryan, Bart Scott, and Jim Leonhard (who seemed to be involved with every fumble recovery in the second half of 2009), but this defense was elite long before these 3 showed up and they will continue to be elite this season. The Ravens do not get as many sacks as most elite defenses. They were the only Top 5 defense not to have at least 40 sacks in 2008 and losing Scott will not help. As long as they have Ed Reed they should have plenty of interceptions. As long as they have Haloti Ngata and Ray Lewis they should shut down opposing running backs and keep points allowed to a minimum. The Ravens should be one of the more consistent fantasy DEF/STs even if they are not Top 5 in the overall rankings. I would still take them Top 3 because of consistency. Their return game should also improve as Chris Carr is a proven return man.
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