We roll into the Super Bowl with a 72-45-3 record, winning at a 62% clip. We’ll finish the season strong and I’ll do everything in my power to keep the money coming next year. Here we go!….-Fireman Mike
A lot of people think Vegas is trying to outsmart everyone by setting this line but the truth is I thought it would be New England -6 when it first came out on Monday. And I think Vegas would have gotten their desired 50-50 split had they set it that high, planting doubt into the minds of the public. But they set it at -3 and even the non-betting public thought, “If it’s NE -3, why don’t they just set it at a ‘pick’ and let the line figure itself out?”
At the end of the day, the Patriots should probably be favored by at least 5 points based on their improving defense, history of success and the fact that they have the best coach/QB tandem in the history of the league. But Vegas decided to give “-3″ a whirl and see where it took them so that’s what we’re dealing with.
Regardless of the line, I would have liked the Giants to cover and win outright. Sometimes the regular season isn’t an accurate depiction of a team, especially when they’re still playing in Febuary. This holds true for a Giants team that hit a lull in the middle of the season that would have killed most teams and had their head coach fired. But the G-Men bounced back after losing four out of five games -their lone win coming against this New England team- during a brutal stretch in which they had to play New England, San Francisco, Philly, New Orleans and Green Bay. This New York team is a battle-tested group that has faced the NFL’s best throughout the last three months.
New England, on the other hand, only had to face two teams that finished the season above .500 in the regular season and had a few breaks go their way in order to make it this far in the first place. Anything can happen this weekend, don’t get me wrong. When Tom Brady takes the field his team always has a chance to win but if you’re putting money on the best “team”, you’d have to take the Giants.
Both offenses should run hot at different points in this game, a direct reflection of their leadership and the fact that Hall Of Fame quarterbacks don’t worry about the last drive and focus on the next. There will be a few turnovers in this game but we like to see those when we have the OVER. I expect the Giants to pull away at some point early in the fourth quarter, only to see Brady storm back and have the ball in his hands with a chance to win with under a minute to go.
The Giants beat the Patriots for the third time in their last three meetings, 33-27, and are crowned Super Bowl Champs for the fourth time since 1986, but we’ll take the points because they’re free!
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