Gabbin’ With the Fantasy Football Expert

Were very lucky today here on the Gab, as today we have an exclusive guest to help our readers with fantasy football. Ebenezer Samuel is one of the beat writers who covers the Giants for The New York Daily News. He’s also a fantasy football aficionado and today, he’s here to answer your questions!

JW: Thank you for taking time out of your schedule to talk with us today. I think the question on everyone’s mind is who are your sleepers?

ES: I’ll give you three guys I like, with a focus on skipping the terribly obvious ones. (Really, if I hear one more person tab Shonn Greene, heir apparent to LaDainian Tomlinson, as a sleeper, I may scream). 

James Jones, Packers – I drafted him in the middle rounds of our NY Daily News fantasy draft, and was absolutely ecstatic. This could be the year that 645-year-old Donald Driver finally takes a step back, and Jones, who received Aaron Rodgers’ endorsement as Packers management fought to re-sign him, should emerge as the new No. 2. He has more size than Jennings, too, so if Driver does fade, Jones could be a go-to red zone target. 

C.J. Spiller, Bills – The kid had a rough rookie season, but he also landed in a nightmare situation, playing with two veteran RBs. With Marshawn Lynch out of the picture, only Fred Jackson is left to siphon carries, and while Jackson’s a solid back, he’s hardly going to rack up 400 touches. That means Spiller gets his chance to break out, and he’s now doing it for a team with a (surprisingly) dangerous QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick and a handful of solid receiving threats. Even if he doesn’t rush for 1,000 yards, PPR gamers should take notice, because my hunch is he’ll be involved in the pass game. A long shot, but a worthwhile late-round flyer.

Mark Sanchez, Jets – Yes, that Mark Sanchez. I’m not drafting him, but as soon as I can get to the waiver wire, I am claiming him. The Jets offer solid pass protection, they run enough to open play-action and keep defenses away from their QB, and, most importantly, they have a bevy of talented weapons. I’m not high on Plax, but he is an upgrade over hot-and-cold Braylon Edwards, and he just may be the big target that Sanchez needs to take a fantasy leap forward. 

JW: As much as we love our sleepers, we hate the people who are busts. Who do you think we should avoid drafting this year?

ES: The obvious name here is Maurice Jones-Drew, but his injury issues are so well-known these days that I think it works in your favor. Talk up MJD’s balky joints to all your friends, and pray he slides into the third round, then pounce. As a first-rounder, he’s a supreme risk. As a third-rounder? Super sleeper. 

Anyway, off that tangent and to the question. I don’t know if Mike Vick will be a TOTAL bust, but he also won’t justify the first-round pick some are spending on him. He’s 31, and he was horrifically mortal down the stretch last year, with 10 TDs and 13 TOs his last five games. He’s an injury waiting to happen, as well, and as a first-rounder, that’s more of a headache than it’s worth. 

I know the world loves Jamaal Charles, but he’s another guy I’d think twice about. Will he put up nice numbers? Yes, but expecting 1,500 yards will lead to disappointment. The Chiefs still have Thomas Jones, and they know better than to overload their 5-10, 199-pound super-explosive speed back. So they’ll spot Charles’ carries and monitor his workloads carefully. Add in a new-and-improved passing game (hello, Steve Breaston and rook Jon Baldwin), and K.C. has plenty of weapons to take pressure of Charles. He’ll be good. Just not nearly as good as last year.

JW: With Lee Evans being dealt to the Ravens, does he finally become a legitimate option now?

The move to Baltimore certainly restores some of Evans’ luster. Derrick Mason and Todd Heap are gone, so the Ravens need somebody to step up alongside Anquan Boldin, and Evans could be that guy. But this isn’t Lee Evans circa 2010. He’s older and slower, and could easily be eclipsed by Torrey Smith, a rookie with speed to burn. I’d rather draft Louis Murphy (a potential No. 1 guy in Oakland) if I could.  

Now, some questions from our readers!

BoomKentucky: Do you think Randall Cobb will get enough time that will make it worth picking him up as a late WR sleep?  ES: Cobb is best left to the waiver wire, unless your league counts return stats. The Pack uses plenty of wideouts, but there’s no way Cobb leapfrogs over vets Driver, Jennings, Jones and Nelson. At RB, the situation isn’t much better, with Ryan Grant back from injury and James Starks and rookie Alex Green in the fold. 

Jordan: In a 12 team league. I got 4th pick in the draft. I’m choosing between Charles, Rice or CJ. I’m leaning towards Charles. Also thinking about waiting till R8 for a QB. (Bradford) Too Late? 

You’ve already seen my take on Charles. I have a stat in today’s NYDN fantasy guide that I can’t recall at the moment, but it’s another strike against Jamaal. Don’t mean to pile on the guy, but it goes something like this: No RB this millenium has topped 1,000 rushing yards with 5.0 yards per carry in three straight seasons. I’m not sure Charles will be the first. I actually like Rice this year, but I’d still go with CJ. There’s double-digit TD potential here (no goal line handcuff, thank you very much), and the semblance of a passing game to keep defenses honest. He’s also fresher after last season’s (relatively) light workload. I rank your options like this: CJ, Rice, Charles.

The other part of your question: I’m not sure I would do that, and I’m not sure it’s worth the risk. First off, you’re banking a lot on Bradford, who definitely has breakout potential, but also has a terribly unproven WR corps and a horribly aging RB lining up behind him. Secondly, in a 12-team league, even if the other 11 teams all grab QBs, there might be a better choice available. Joe Flacco or Matt Ryan just might fall to you, and both have far more proven targets, better offensive lines, and better RBs to share the load. Pounce on those guys instead of chasing the uncertainty that is Sam Bradford. 

I’m also inclined to chase Top 10 QBs this year. Rodgers, Manning, Brees, Brady, Vick, Rivers, Romo, Schaub, Big Ben, even Josh Freeman. All those guys have the potential to finish the year as the top-rated fantasy QB. Once you miss those guys, you’re settling for adequate over possibly first-place. I’d rather grab a pair of WRs, a pair of RBs, then angle to get a QB who could lead the league in fantasy points to round out my starting unit. Backups can be had off waivers or later in the draft.

Justin: In a 10 person league, do I pick RB RB WR WR QB in the first 5 rounds?

Love the strategy. It lets you grab a star RB in the first round, another potential stud in the second, and by the time you’re chasing wideouts, you’ll likely still have a shot at potential studs like Larry Fitzgerald, Miles Austin and a personal favorite of mine, Dez Bryant. You’re in a 10-team league, so even if every other team grabs a starting QB, you’ll still have solid options such as Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan on the board. I’d go into this draft targeting Freeman, but being plenty happy if somebody else takes him, because that means Big Ben or Matt Schaub has fallen into my lap. 

Jordan (again): Can I wait till later rounds for a TE ? Looking at the likes of Watson, Keller, Heap, Gresham….Too late?

Just counted it up, and a whopping 22 TEs surpassed the 500-yards receiving mark last season. Only five, however, topped 750 yards. So if you’re not going to draft a TE early, why stress it in the middle rounds, when there’s a really really good chance that you’ll get a solid enough TE late? I’m with you on waiting until later, and I’m very high on Heap. Remember, in 2009, Brent Celek had back-to-back 100-yard games when Kevin Kolb was helming the offense. Last year, he broke out of an early-season slump with back-to-back TD weeks when Kolb took over. Translation: Kolb has a thing for TEs. And that bodes well for Heap.  We’d like to thank Ebenezer Samuel for taking time out of his busy day to Gab with us. You can follow him on Twitter @ebenezersamuel ….. I also strongly suggest you purchase The New York Daily News Fantasy Football Guide, which you can purchase online HERE! I strongly suggest you do. I know I am.