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Get smarter with these NFL betting trends ahead of Week 15
If you have perused the Week 15 betting board yet in the NFL, you may be shocked to see how many games have a total under 40 this weekend. One look at the season-long betting trends would certainly help explain why that is.
Get in your early work on Week 15 by taking in the best and worst NFL betting teams this week, and where there are overlaps for this week's slate.
NFL against the spread betting trends
Best teams ATS
- Dallas Cowboys (9-4)
- Philadelphia Eagles (7-4-2)
- Minnesota Vikings (7-4-2)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)
- Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
- Detroit Lions (8-5)
- Indianapolis Colts (8-5)
- Miami Dolphins (8-5)
Interestingly, of the above best teams ATS, only the Dallas Cowboys covered in Week 14. The rest all fell ATS, and five of them lost outright. Are trends middling out, or was Week 14 just an anomaly? The Jaguars and Ravens meet on Sunday night in a massive AFC game.
Worst teams ATS
- Carolina Panthers (2-9-2)
- New England Patriots (3-10)
- New Orleans Saints (3-9-1)
- Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
- Buffalo Bills (5-8)
- Los Angeles Chargers (5-8)
It definitely seems that things are evening out a bit in the NFL, as only six teams are still failing to cover at a 60% rate or worse. Carolina is the tried and true fade team, covering in just 18.2% of their games this season.
The Panthers are on pace to be the worst betting team of all time; The worst recorded ATS records in the NFL are 3-13.
Week 15 overlaps
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills — This is a massive game for both sides. The Bills are the favorites at home and fighting for their playoff lives, so we expect their best effort here against the Cowboys. Dallas is the best ATS team in the NFL, but they are 3-3 overall on the road compared to 7-0 at home. The trends suggest Dallas, but we be wary that Buffalo is going to be the more desperate team this weekend.
NFL over/under betting trends
Best teams: Overs
- Indianapolis Colts (9-4)
- Miami Dolphins (8-5)
- Dallas Cowboys (8-5)
- Detroit Lions (8-5)
- Washington Commanders (8-5)
We're back to just a handful of teams going over at a 61.5% rate or better, as the 2023 season continues to be a year dominated by the unders. Shoutout to Gardner Minshew, Shane Steichen and the Indianapolis Colts, the standalone best team at going over this year at 9-4.
Best teams: Unders
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)
- Las Vegas Raiders (10-3)
- Minnesota Vikings (10-3)
- Los Angeles Chargers (10-3)
- New England Patriots (9-4)
- New York Giants (9-4)
- Carolina Panthers (9-4)
- Kansas City Chiefs (9-4)
- New Orleans Saints (9-4)
- Buffalo Bills (9-4)
There were quite a few overlaps of great under teams in the NFL last week, and for the most part, those delivered with more low-scoring games. Nothing was more prominent than the Vikings-Raiders playing to a 3-0 barnburner.
Six more teams are 8-5 to the under, it's been such an interesting season in that regard, so be sure to go light on overs for the rest of the season!
Week 15 overlaps
Unders:
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (34 points) — Ah, another Thursday night, another low total. This is the lowest total of the week, and it's understandable. The Raiders were just shut out, while Easton Stick is in at QB for the Chargers, operating an offense that was already having difficulties finding success. This under should be the play.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (37 points) — Kansas City has dropped two straight, while Bailey Zappe and the Patriots are fresh off their best showing of the season. It's extremely hard to see a world where Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs don't score here, but this is a savvy under play based on the quality of the defenses and how each season has gone.
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (37.5 points) — The one possibility for an over here would be that each run defense is not particularly strong, which could open things up for some easy touchdowns. Neither QB has played very well, though Tommy DeVito just had his best game. We lean the under here.
Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.
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