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Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Here's what a contract extension would look like for Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton

Originally posted on A to Z Sports | By Josh Queipo | Last updated 5/8/24

The Kansas City Chiefs had one of the most talented linebacker rooms in the NFL in 2024, headlined by second round picks Nick Bolton and Willie Gay Jr. and rounded out with second-year third rounder Leo Chenal.

Drue Tranquill was also signed as a rotational piece after a breakout year starting for the rival Los Angeles Chargers, and ended up earning an extension with the Chiefs that indicates he’ll be leaned on as a starter moving forward.

Although Tranquill did an exceptional job filling in for Nick Bolton when he went down with a wrist injury in October 2023, Bolton is still the alpha of defense. He wears the green dot, and Steve Spagnuolo trusts his input when making play calls.

Tranquill's extension also compliments Bolton very well, as Drue excels in pass coverage where Bolton does his best work against the run, but both are well-rounded enough to not create liabilities at the second level. Although Gay Jr. left for the Saints this offseason, keeping the trio of Bolton, Tranquil and Chenal together for the foreseeable future would be a well-advised move.

Landing on a valuation for Bolton is a little tricky - he’s had success leading a championship-winning defense in back-to-back seasons, but what sets the top earners at the position apart from the next tier down is a season where they’ve displayed elite pass coverage ability. Before signing their impressive extensions, Fred Warner and Tremaine Edmunds both had a campaign on their resume that featured a PFF coverage grade of at least 90. Roquan Smith didn’t reach the 90-mark, but he did post a grade of 84.0 in 2020. Bolton’s coverage grade is currently capped at 73.8, a safe distance from Smith and a far cry from Warner and Edmunds.

Dropping him down to the next tier of linebackers gives a couple of more adequate comparables for this analysis. Here are three linebackers that help set our negotiation brackets, and the stats of their three years preceding their extensions:

Via A To Z Sports

Bolton did miss half of the 2023 season, which played a significant role in these counting stats not being higher, especially after his 180 tackle season in 2022. In the three year compilation, it’s difficult to see where he should fall amongst his three contemporaries. Using his last healthy season as his platform year and comparing it against these three comparables’ platform years should help narrow down where negotiations land.

Via A To Z Sports

Looking at these platform years really clears up where Bolton’s value should land. He’s the only other backer within reach of Olyokun’s insane 192 tackle season, and is the only linebacker with a lower missed tackle percentage. He matched Patrick Queen’s ability to drop ball carriers behind the line, lagged in the pass breakup department, but was second in interceptions. He tied for second in sacks and QB hits as well.

If Oluokun is presumably the top-end of Bolton’s valuation bracket, Queen appears to be the low end, as he brings a similar disruption at and behind the line of scrimmage. Bobby Okereke drops off the bracket as he trails in all stats except for PBUs, but there isn’t a general manager who would assign more value to Okereke’s extra two PBUs than Bolton’s two interceptions.

Via A To Z Sports

While Oluokun’s contract appeared steep when he signed, he played well enough to justify an extension through his age-32 season. The Jaguars added an additional three years and $30 million in new money to his contract, freeing up considerable 2024 cap space while locking in a core piece of their defense. The team success Bolton has shared with the Chiefs, along with his comparable stats and noticeably better missed tackle percentage and TFL’s, will soften the sticker shock of what Oluokun’s cap share from his 2022 signing would mean at today's numbers.

The Jaguars were a dysfunctional mess in 2021 thanks to Urban Meyer, so they presumably had to pay a little premium to pull Foyesade from the Falcons. The Chiefs will likely ask for a little hometown discount, settling around a 7% cap share that would place Bolton just behind Roquan Smith, Fred Warner and Tremaine Edmunds in APY.