How to stop a Pats comeback: Never think you're ahead

Now that Tom Brady and the Patriots have reached their eighth Super Bowl together and are closing in on their sixth ring, there’s little point in debating the best dynasty and quarterback of all time. Even if the Eagles score an improbable upset, it’s hard to make the case against the Pats and Brady as the best extended dynasty and quarterback of at least the modern era.

In beating the Jaguars to advance to Super Bowl LII, Brady and the Pats did something that has always been difficult for everyone else but has become seemingly routine to them in recent years: erase big leads in the postseason, often within the span of a single quarter. It’s to the point that the Eagles could lead 35-0 at the start of the fourth quarter in the Super Bowl and no one would feel quite assured that the game was over.

While the Pats have upped the ante in the frequency and size of their postseason comebacks in the last few years, that isn’t to say the concept was alien to them early in the Brady/Belichick era. In fact, in their first postseason game together, the infamous Tuck Rule game, involved a comeback from a 13-3 lead the Jon Gruden-led Raiders held at the start of the fourth quarter. What most people remember from that game was the overturned fumble by Brady, though the propensity for the Pats to stage big comebacks in the playoffs has been overlooked as a hallmark of their success.

So how does one avoid being a victim of a Patriots comeback? That would probably be valuable information to have, and I would likely charge tens of millions for it if possible. Unfortunately, there’s no simple answer since the Patriots have staged huge comebacks on teams with vastly different schemes and abilities. There are a few rules of thumb, however.

Luckily, the Eagles have some of the common elements of teams that have traditionally had success against Brady in the postseason. The Eagles will likely have their chances. The Patriots' M.O. in the Super Bowl is not to blow teams out, but, hey, you never know this time. It’s not as though Bill Belichick wants championship games to be close. I’m sure he’d much prefer to win in a walk than a huge comeback that ends in overtime. But the Eagles have arguably the most talented roster in the league and two weeks to prepare. A killer turnover might destroy them, but most likely they'll be in the mix for most of Super Bowl LII.

Though the Falcons' defense was fast in Super Bowl LI and even forced a pick-six of Brady in the first half, a unit was that mostly pretty average that season couldn’t keep up the pace and tired out when Atlanta’s offense couldn’t maintain drives in the second half. It probably also didn’t help that Kyle Shanahan was allergic to running the ball late. The result was Atlanta famously blowing a 28-3 lead.

Jacksonville’s defense, however, was statistically a much better group than the Falcons team the Pats met in the last Super Bowl, and the Jaguars were not shy about running the ball with the lead in the second half. Sure, they didn’t end up blowing a 25-point lead that way, but their swaggering defense couldn’t hold a two-score lead either.

 So what are some keys to holding off a New England comeback or even coming back on the Pats?

You have to have a good defense that can bring pressure, hopefully without blitzing