How Will New Falcons Coach Use Bijan Robinson?

How will the Robinson hire impact his star running back?

It is yet to be seen how Robinson will leave his fingerprints on the offense, but we have more than a half-decade worth of evidence for what McVay likes to do.

The rookie back saw the third-most targets on the team in 2023, with 86. He finished with 58 receptions, 487 yards, and four scores through the air. Although Bijan Robinson is a dynamic talent, and there will certainly be attempts to get him the ball in space, fans should expect less production as a receiver.

Only the Denver Broncos and New York Jets saw a larger percentage of their targets go to running backs than the Falcons last season. This is a referendum on quarterback play to an extent, but it’s worth noting that Los Angeles has rarely leaned on its running backs in the passing game.

The highest distribution of targets to running backs in the McVay era was in 2017 when running back Todd Gurley set the league on fire. Even so, the running back position only saw 19 percent of the Rams’ targets. Gurley finished with 87 targets, 64 catches, 788 yards, and six touchdowns as a receiver. That distribution of targets ranks 112th of the 224 NFL offenses since McVay took over.

Los Angeles’ 2018 offense ranked 140th. Everything since has shifted away from the backfield. Since 2019, the Rams ranked 224th, 217th, 218th, 221st, and 220th in percentage of targets to running backs, respectively.

It’s worth noting that Robinson joined Los Angeles in 2019.

Where Robinson should compensate for a potential downswing in production is as a workhorse back. The league in general has trended away from one man truly leading the backfield on every down, and running back Tyler Allgeier is certainly good enough to take away some attempts, but fans should expect this to be Robinson’s backfield.

In 2023, Smith deployed Allgeier early and often, opting to take his star rookie off the field frequently in the red zone and other loaded-box situations. Robinson netted 214 attempts while his backup found 186. In total, Robinson saw 41 percent of Atlanta’s carries.

Rams running back Kyren Williams, meanwhile, saw a tick under 48 percent of his team’s carries in 2023. He missed five games. Whether it be Gurley or Williams, the two backs McVay has trusted far more than any of the backs in between, Los Angeles was not afraid to lean on them heavily.

In all likelihood, Robinson will eclipse 60 percent of the team’s rushing attempts. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him get over the 250 mark – which would have ranked eighth in the NFL instead of 19th. Williams, despite his significant absence, ranked 13th.

The Falcons didn’t spend a top-10 pick on a running back to not use him, and it seems like they’ll have the staff in place to make good on that. With more targets available to London, Pitts, and whoever else Atlanta brings in, Robinson should be off to the races on the ground in 2024.