Originally written on The Football Fan Spot  |  Last updated 1/4/13
The Colts shocked the world this year, going from 2 wins to 11 wins and the 5 seed in the AFC. However, they haven’t been as good as their record. They enter the postseason at -30 in points differential (the worst ever by an 11+ win team). This because they have just 2 wins by more than a touchdown and 4 losses, including 3 losses by 20 or more. They are 11-5 by virtue of their 9-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or more. A lot of people think this is impressive and point to this as a reason why Andrew Luck should be Rookie of the Year over Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin in spite of the latter two’s far superior stats (stats aren’t everything, but sometimes you can’t ignore them: Griffin and Wilson were 3rd and 4th in QB rating, Luck was 26th). I disagree with that as record in close games tends to be inconsistent on a game to game passes (teams who win a game by 7 points or less win the following game 52% of the time if it’s also decided by 7 points or less). I don’t bel...
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