Jacksonville Jaguars ceiling and floor for 2023

With the regular season kicking off Thursday, we're dusting off our earlier guides on the ceilings and floors of each team in the NFL.

Here's what we said about Jacksonville back in June. Let's examine what's changed:

Ceiling: 12-5 (originally 11-6)

The Jaguars are certainly doing everything in their power to set quarterback Trevor Lawrence up for an All-Pro-caliber year, giving him four running backs, seven receivers and three tight ends to work with. Calvin Ridley looked impressive throughout camp and the preseason, and giving Lawrence a bonafide No. 1 target could help him reach the next level in his development.

There are really only four games on their schedule that the Jags aren’t or won’t be favored to win (Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, Cincinnati), so if they run the table and win most or all of their division games, 12-5 is certainly doable. Jacksonville gets a one-game bump based on the potential its offense has to be great.

Floor: 7-10 (originally 5-12)

After seeing how the offense gelled during camp and the preseason, I’m not convinced there are 12 losses on the Jags schedule, especially considering the number of shootouts they could likely get into this year. Of their 17 opponents, only five of them have a defense that ranked in the top 10 last year.

While not improbable, a 3-3 record within the division would be selling Jacksonville short. Sweeping the Colts is a realistic possibility, as is sweeping the Texans. The Titans should put up a tougher fight, so a split in those games makes sense. Even if the Jags get swept by the Titans, a 4-2 division record is likely as bad as it gets for Jacksonville in a weak AFC South.