Keeping Joe Mixon, overpaying at safety, and other surprises Bengals may pull off in free agency

As Locked on Bengals co-host Jake Liscow pointed out on Twitter/X, the Cincinnati Bengals have been known to surprise in free agency over the past few years.

Orlando Brown Jr. came out of nowhere last year with a signing bonus that made Bengals history. Alex Cappa was the second reported signing of the legal tampering period in 2022, the earliest reported deal ever done by the Bengals for an external free agent. They used a void year, a previously unforeseen tactic in Cincinnati, for Riley Reiff in 2021.

All of this of course followed the club's first real foray into the deep end of free agency waters back in 2020. If there's one thing to expect for the club in free agency now, it's the unexpected.

Free agency bonanza for the 2024 offseason is just a weekend away now, and the Bengals have plenty of cash to spend on unused cap space. How will they spend it in ways we're not expecting? Here are a handful of potential surprises waiting for us on the other side.  

Bengals lead the way in the safety market

It's a complete buyer's market at safety right now with nearly two dozen starting caliber players hitting or have already hit the market, but some team will end up spending more than the others.  

The Bengals are reportedly going to be players in the safety market. Could they be the players?

Xavier McKinney and Kamren Curl are the top two available safeties on the market, and A to Z Sports salary cap experts Josh Queipo and Kyle Dediminicantanio predict the former signs for just under $12 million a year. That's a bit more manageable compared to what Jessie Bates III signed for last year when he left Cincinnati for the Atlanta Falcons.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Bengals spent more than expected on a free safety to solidify the position this year and beyond.

Joe Mixon is kept on the roster

Last offseason showed that Mixon is here until he isn't. There was zero chance he was coming back last year without taking a pay cut, but that's ultimately what the team preferred to do rather than move on from him completely. 

This will come down to value, plain and simple. Mixon will watch top backs such as Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and the seemingly immortal Derrick Henry all sign contracts larger than the one he accepted last Summer, but every other running back on the market is likely to sign for cheaper than Mixon's current deal.

If the Bengals feel like Mixon's price is worth his remaining talent compared to alternative options, which is essentially what happened last year, he could easily stick around for one last ride. We'll at least find out sooner than later with his $3 million roster bonus due in less than two weeks.

Drew Sample gets a larger payday than expected

Of all the internal UFAs the Bengals will have to decide on, I can see Sample being the one they overvalue the most. He proved his worth in a surprisingly niche role in 2023 as a backfield pass protector and checkdown option as a receiver. He was a supersized running back that also repped inline. 

Blocking prowess is sometimes rewarded higher than expected on the open market. Look no further than when Josh Oliver finessed $7 million per year from the Minnesota Vikings a year ago. The Bengals could lock Sample in for a slightly smaller deal in the $3-5 million per year range just to keep his unique skillset around.

Akeem Davis-Gaither returns to stay as a reserve

The return of ADG wouldn't drop anyone's jaws, but it'd go against expectation in my book. Davis-Gaither was drafted just outside of the third round four years ago and has been stuck as a reserve on the depth chart ever since. He's stuck around through special teams and occasional playing depending on the opposing offensive scheme. But with Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt locked in as starters, there's no room for Davis-Gaither to advance.

It seems like the time for him to move on and find a defense where he can contribute more. Should his market not materialize the way he'd like, I could see him back on a one-year deal to play in the scheme he's familiar with, hoping to take advantage of an unforeseen opportunity.

Bengals sign a David Mulugheta client

This comes off as bold for the initiated, but I don't think it is. Mulugheta is one of three agents at Athletes First, and for Bengals fans, he's public enemy No. 1. He represents both Jessie Bates and Tee Higgins, the team's two most recent franchise tag recipients following contract negotiations that went south.

It's fair to assume that the Bengals will never be able to crack Mulugheta when it comes to top contracts, but deals on the lower end? That's where an agreement can be reached. Mulugheta represents notable free agents such as Jermaine Eluemunor and Deshon Elliott, two players the Bengals should be interested in signing this month. 

I think one of them is a Bengal within the next two weeks.