Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
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If you’ve been following all of my picks, you’d know I love betting against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams. The competition Tannehill faced in the Big 12 is nothing like the 4th ranked scoring defense of the Texans’ he’ll face this week.
That will be especially true for Tannehill because he’s incredibly raw and because he doesn’t have much to work with in the receiving corps at all. Legedu Naanee, Brian Hartline, and Davone Bess will be his top 3 wide receivers, with Anthony Fasano and Charles Clay at tight end. Things aren’t muc...