Originally written on The Pass Rush  |  Last updated 9/24/12


In was a tough week 3 thanks in part to 9 home dogs on this week’s card. It was a mixed bag as the home dogs went 4-3 ATS this week. Our only play on Sunday was the Steelers. It was looking good for 3 quarters going into the 4th with a 31-21 lead until a little Oakland magic that only comes with home field advantage occurred, which gave the Raiders the upset win. Tonight we have another home dog on Monday Night.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3.5) @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

First, I’m not touching this game. To give you a teaser of what I like in week 4, I think you take a hard look at Cardinals (-6.5) at home over the Miami Dolphins, especially if Reggie Bush (suffered a knee injury and didn’t play the rest of the game) is ruled out. Miami’s success is squarely on the back of Reggie Bush and the Dolphins offense was ineffective against the Jets once Bush left the game. The Cardinals have a solid defense and will hold the Dolphins to 13 points or less next week. Now onto tonight’s game.

I’m going to pick my battles against the 12-6 home dogs and this isn’t a spot to pick against them on Monday Night. Seattle is a tough place to play. The Seahawks are 13-5 ATS at home in the last three years, including a 6-2 record when a home underdog of 3 points or less.The Packers have faired pretty well on the road going 11-8 ATS. I’m going to take them for purposes of the pick ‘em league, but there’s no shame in passing on the game due to uncertainty.

The public loves the Packers and that’s what Vegas wants. 86% of the public is taking the Packers tonight. Vegas is fine with that as they’ve made out like bandits through the first three weeks of the season with upset after upset. I don’t think the Packers win easy though. Seattle’s defense is for real. The Cowboys game where the Seahawks won 27-7 was no fluke. Take away the blocked punt returned for a touchdown and the Seahawks still would have won 20-7. The Seahawks controlled the clock by piling up 182 rushing yards and their defense forced 2 turnovers. They Seahawks actually forced 4 fumbles and only 1 was recovered by them.

The 12th man will be rocking tonight and the Seahawks defense and home crowd is enough for me to say you pass on this game. I’ll take the Packers in the pick ‘em league since they’re just that much more talented on both sides of the ball than the Seahawks, but don’t expect the win to come easy for them. I’m passing on this game and will take a look at the week 4 lines.

Prediction: Packers 27 – Seahawks 23

Pick Against the Spread: Packers -3.5 (Confidence: 4/10)

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