Originally written November 28, 2011 on The Pass Rush:

We split our Sunday picks going 2-2 ATS after going 2-1 ATS on Thanksgiving. We hit on the Panthers and Falcons, but came up short on the Bengals and Steelers. If the Steelers didn’t fumble the football in the endzone at the beginning of the game, the score could have ended 20-9 instead of 13-9 giving the Steelers the cover. We came out even so no biggie, let’s pick the Monday Night game between the Giants and Saints. NEW YORK GIANTS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7.5) You know I love teasing games on Monday Night. I’m not a fan of Saints -7.5 since the Giants offense can keep pace with Drew Brees. The Giants average about 23 points while the Saints average 31 points, but the Saints 62 points against the Colts inflates that number. Both defenses are giving up 22.8 PPG. Eli Manning outdueled Tom Brady on the road, but has since lost two straight games to the 49ers and Eagles, losing both of those games by a touchdown. With the Saints undefeated at home, I don’t see them dropping this one, but Manning has the passing attack to keep this one close throughout the game and possibly covering the spread. I think this is a good candidate to take the points, but why bet against the Saints at home? The Saints are 4-0 ATS at home this year covering against the Bucs, Colts, Texans, and Chicago. I hate the Giants and don’t have much faith in them on the road, so I’ll tease the Saints to a pick ‘em and take a look at the over/under. Everyone is thinking points in this one. The over/under is coming in at 51, which is right around where I thought it would be. Tease that over/under down to 44 with the Saints and I like the way the ticket is looking. Even if both defenses step up to the plate and slow down the opposing team’s passing game, I’m sure you can count on minimum score of 24-20 or 27-17. Prediction: Saints 31 – Giants 24 Pick Against the Spread: Teaser Saints -0.5/Over 44 (Confidence: 4/5)
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