Found December 19, 2011 on The Pass Rush:


Steelers vs 49ers Pick Against the SpreadWe are coming in to tonight’s Monday Night game 6-0 ATS in our last 6 Monday Night picks. I would ordinarily just pass over this game as too close to call, but I have to post a pick to keep the Monday Night streak alive! I’m going to recommend a teaser by taking the points and the under.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS (-3)

Despite Big Ben getting the start tonight, the 49ers stay at 3-point favorites. I say take advantage of the points. This is a pretty even matchup on both sides of the ball. While the 49ers have averaged 28 PPG at home and 23.6 PPG throughout the season, the 49ers offense has struggled lately, scoring just 19 against the Cardinals and putting up 6 on the Ravens. Patrick Willis is also out this game.

This is a big game for the Steelers, who have an opportunity to move up a game on the Ravens in the AFC North race, which is the difference between a No. 1 or 2 seed vs. a No. 5 seed. In what will no doubt be a tight game, I will want the points on my side, especially since the Steelers could win outright.

With both defenses giving up a combined 18.6 PPG in their last 3 games — that’s 6.3 PPG allowed by Pittsburgh and 12.3 PPG allowed by the 49ers — the under 37.5 is compelling. What is even more compelling is adding the points to the over and taking the Steelers at +10.

I usually like to tease Monday Night games and see the perfect opportunity to take points while betting on the under with two of the best defenses in the league squaring off. Points will be tough to come by for both teams and both teams love to run the football and eat up the clock. I don’t think anyone is expecting the 49ers to win by 10+ points and I think the highest possible score you end up seeing tonight is 24-20. Take the Steelers at +10 with the under 44.5.

Prediction: Steelers 16 – 49ers 13

Pick Against the Spread: Teaser Steelers +10, Under 44.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

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