New development proves Steelers' Mike Tomlin faces his most difficult season yet

How accurate is Warren Sharp’s model for determining strength of schedule? Looking at last season’s strength of schedule model:

Of the 15 teams predicted to have the easiest 2023 schedules, 11 finished with winning records (Saints, Colts, Texans, Lions, Jaguars, Steelers, Packers, Buccaneers, 49ers, Browns, and Bengals)

Of the 15 teams predicted to have the hardest 2023 schedules, only 5 finished with a winning record (Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Vikings)

Of the 7 teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules, all 7 had winning records (49ers, Bengals, Lions, Jaguars, Saints, Browns, and Steelers)

Of the 7 teams forecast to finish at or below .500 and predicted to have harder-than-average schedules, all 7 had losing records and 6 went under their win total (Vikings, Broncos, Giants, Patriots, Commanders, and Cardinals)

-Warren Sharp, Sharp Football Analysis

Now, Pittsburgh is no stranger to tough schedules. Nor are they immune to winning games they shouldn't, as under Mike Tomlin, the team has a better record when labeled as an underdog as opposed to a favorite. 

Recency proves as much:

Of the 17 teams that actually had the hardest 2023 schedules, only 4 went to the playoffs (Steelers, Browns, Ravens, and Rams) with 4-of-17 going over their win total.

-Warren Sharp

So maybe this plays right into Pittsburgh's hands. Not only does Tomlin oppose comfort, but his team does as well, seldom walking over opponents they should, but often rising to the occasion. 

2024 will require plenty of the latter.