New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-6)
The Saints are overrated. Yes, they knocked off Atlanta, but Dallas, Carolina, Washington, and Oakland almost did so. Their defense is still a joke. Because of their defense, they rank 28th in yards per play differential and 25th in rate of sustaining drives differential. Their defense ranks dead last in both of those metrics. The Raiders, meanwhile, aren’t much better, but they rank 24th in yards per play differential and 23rd in rate of sustaining drives differential. They rank better in both of those statistics than the Saints and somehow they’re still home dogs.
Using those statistics to compute real line, we get that Oakland should be 3.5 point favorites using the yards per play differential method and 4.5 points favorites using the rate of sustaining drives differential method. Instead, Oakland is +5.5. That’s 9 or 10 points of line value, which is an absolutely ridiculous amount to get at this point in the season.