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NFL bets: Best and worst NFL betting teams ATS and over/under, and Week 10 games to monitor
Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs celebrates with Lions fans. Kirthmon F. Dozier / USA TODAY NETWORK

NFL bets: Best and worst NFL betting teams ATS and over/under, and Week 10 games to monitor

By Griffin Carroll  |  Last updated 11/7/23

Halfway through the NFL season is a terrific time to take stock of the betting trends for all 32 teams. Sample sizes are large enough that teams are showing us their true colors, and their performance against where sportsbooks have set their lines is an exercise worth making every week prior to loading up a bet against the spread (ATS) or against the total. 

Against the spread betting trends

Best teams ATS

  1. Detroit Lions (6-2)
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2)
  3. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2-2)
  4. Kansas City Chiefs (6-3)
  5. Miami Dolphins (6-3)
  6. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
  7. Dallas Cowboys (5-3)
  8. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
  9. Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1)
  10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-3)

Good teams win, great teams cover. That makes it all the more interesting to see which teams are representing the top of the board in the NFL against the spread trends. Every single team you see here above, besides Tampa Bay, would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

The Lions were the second-best team ATS last year and have now covered the spread in 18 of their last 25 games.

Worst teams ATS

  1. Carolina Panthers (1-6-1)
  2. Atlanta Falcons (2-7)
  3. New England Patriots (2-7)
  4. New Orleans Saints (2-6-1)
  5. New York Giants (2-6-1)
  6. Denver Broncos (2-5-1)
  7. Buffalo Bills (3-6)
  8. Chicago Bears (3-5-1)

There are not too many surprises here, besides perhaps the Buffalo Bills, though their 5-4 start might have already alerted to some to a less-than-stellar 2023 out of Buffalo.

The NFC South has three teams represented in the bottom portion of the league against the spread, backing up the belief from many that this division was set to be the worst in football this season.

Overlaps in Week 10

New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) — The Vikings are 5-3-1 ATS while the Saints are 2-6-1, and we just watched as Joshua Dobbs had a backup QB performance for the ages. Despite all of that, Minnesota are 2.5-point home underdogs this weekend.

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-16) — This is one of the largest spreads you're going to see in an NFL game, but it feels justified when you look at the ATS trends and remember Week 1, a game that Dallas won 40-0.

Over/under betting trends

Best teams vs. the over

  1. Indianapolis Colts (6-3)
  2. Chicago Bears (6-3)
  3. San Francisco 49ers (5-3)
  4. Dallas Cowboys (5-3)

Only four teams in the NFL have gone over at a 60% clip or better, be wary of those overs when you load them up this weekend!

Best teams vs. the under

  1. New York Giants (8-1)
  2. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-1)
  3. New Orleans Saints (7-2)
  4. Minnesota Vikings (7-2)
  5. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
  6. Las Vegas Raiders (7-2)
  7. Tennessee Titans (6-2)
  8. Los Angeles Chargers (6-2)
  9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2)
  10. Baltimore, Buffalo, New England, LA Rams, Atlanta (6-3)

As one might presume, given the lack of teams hitting their overs at a frequent pace, unders are hitting at a historic rate. Over half the NFL has an under rate of 62.5% or greater, so we had to cut it down to just the 15 teams going under in 66.7% or more of their games.

The Giants are leading the way thanks to their hapless offense, while teams like Pittsburgh and New Orleans are here more for the combination of a struggling offense and strong defense.

Overlaps in Week 10

New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings (41 points) — Back to Minnesota here for another overlap of two teams hitting their unders at a 7-2 rate. Does the Dobbs factor have you throwing these trends out the window, or will you back under 41 in this one?

Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (38 points) — This is the third-lowest total of the weekend. At first glance, we know both of these secondaries are weak and both QBs in Will Levis and Baker Mayfield can be fun. Our heart tells us to go over, but the numbers suggest the under.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use. 

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