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NFL 'MNF' Week 1: Best bets and preview for Bills vs. Jets
Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8). Chris Pedota, NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

NFL 'MNF' Week 1: Best bets and preview for Bills vs. Jets

By Jack Dougherty  |  Last updated 9/11/23

The 2023 "Monday Night Football" slate kicks off with a good one, as the Buffalo Bills will make the short trip to New Jersey to face off against the new-look New York Jets. The NFL saved the best matchup of Week 1 for last, and we couldn't be more thankful.

Let's take a deeper look at the first "MNF" game of the season and try to find some winning bets along the way.

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets betting breakdown

Tonight's odds: Bills -2, over/under 45.5, Bills -125 moneyline | Jets +105 moneyline

If you paid any attention to the NFL offseason, you know the Jets are the most hyped-up team in the league by a wide margin. New York had the second-best scoring defense in the NFL last season, but the team finished 7-10 due to shoddy quarterback play. The Jets seemingly solved their QB problem by trading for future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, and that was enough to vault them to ninth on the Super Bowl odds board at +2000. 

New York will open the 2023 season as two-point home underdogs to the division-rival Bills, a team that went 13-3 last season before putting up a dud against the Cincinnati Bengals in the playoffs. Buffalo, led by MVP betting favorite Josh Allen, returns almost all of its starters and is the +125 favorite to win the AFC East.   The Jets may have won the offseason, but will that translate to a victory on the field in Week 1? I'm not so sure. 

'Monday Night Football' best bets

Bills -2 (-110 DraftKings)

The only reason this spread has settled under a field goal is because of the overwhelming hype the Jets have received since Rodgers joined the team. How quickly we forget the Bills led the NFL with a +10.56 scoring margin last season, and they're 5-1 against the Jets in their last six meetings.

New York could eventually turn into a Super Bowl contender, but it won't happen right out of the gates. Rodgers will likely struggle to start the season with a new group of weapons and a below-average offensive line in front of him. The 39-year-old QB attempted only eight passes in the preseason, and he'll need more live reps to build a rapport with his new stable of wide receivers.

The Bills, on the other hand, aren't dealing with nearly as much turnover. Allen already has a great connection with Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox on the outside. Buffalo won't have star pass-rusher Von Miller at its disposal, but the defense is finally healthy in the secondary.

I'm trusting the known commodity over the unknown hype train, and we're getting a cheap price to do so.

First half under 23.5 (-120 FanDuel)

This game has slow start written all over it. 

I expect the Jets to struggle out of the gates with the uncertainty surrounding the offensive line. The starting unit barely saw any action in the preseason, and it may take a few weeks to get on the same page. New York's defense should be able to frustrate the Bills in the first half, too, and Sauce Gardner is the perfect weapon to slow down Diggs and this passing attack.

I'm expecting a feel-it-out first half from both offenses, and two elite defenses should be able to keep this under the total. 


Check out Yardbarker's betting hub for more previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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