NFL player prop bets for Week 5 and beyond

Odds: 1 Game +5000 | 2 Games +700 | 3 Games +200 | 4 Games -135 | 5-or-more Games +300

Before Trubisky torched the Buccaneers last Sunday, he had thrown only two touchdowns in his previous three games. Granted, Tampa Bay ranks dead last in passing yards allowed per game and touchdowns allowed to opposing quarterbacks, but six scores are six scores. After their Week 5 bye, the Bears play the entire AFC East over the next four weeks. They travel to Miami before hosting the Patriots and Jets and wrap things up at Buffalo. The Dolphins secondary is depleted due to injury and the Patriots proved once again Thursday night that they can’t stop the pass consistently. To throw six more touchdowns over his next two games is going to be a tall task for Mitch, but I think he definitely achieves it against the Jets.

The Bet: 3 Games

Odds: Yes -200 | No +150

Baltimore’s perfect red zone conversion rate ended at Pittsburgh last weekend, but their four-game streak of not allowing an offensive touchdown in the second half continued. Under Baker Mayfield, the Browns have scored five second-half touchdowns over the past two games. While I think Mayfield is about to endure an arduous afternoon on his home turf, I don’t think he’ll get shutout like Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers. Plus, the juice isn’t too bad all things considered.

The Bet: Yes

Odds: Over 47.5 (-120) | Under 47.5 (-120)

After missing the first four games due to suspension, Peter King reported that Mark Ingram met the Saints at the airport upon their return from New York. The guy seems raring to go. Ingram’s averaged 5.0 yards per carry over the past two seasons as the Saints embraced their running game. While New Orleans’ average year-over-year rush yards per game has dipped approximately 25 yards, it’s only because Alvin Kamara has been so dominant pass catching out of the backfield. Ingram’s return will provide some balance against a Redskins defense allowing 4.5 yards per carry. If he’s able to maintain that average, Ingram would only need 10-11 carries to hit the OVER.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Over 98.5 (-120) | Under 98.5 (-120)

Through four games, Thielen is averaging 10 receptions, 14 targets and 118 receiving yards per game. The Eagles underachieving secondary has allowed 272 yards per game. Pro Football Focus indicates that Thielen has the eighth most-friendly wide receiver / cornerback match-up of Week 5.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Yes +400 | No -700

What the Titans are doing right now is a mirage, right? Marcus Mariota’s elbow injury sustain in Week 1 has required he wear a special glove on his throwing hand to get a better grip because the injury reportedly caused loss of sensation in his fingers. Yet, he goes out there and passes for 344 yards against the Eagles (note that Thielen backers) last week. One major sports book has the Titans favored by 5 ½ over the Bills and Buffalo is going to have a heck of a time scoring on Tennessee’s defense.

The Bet: NO

Odds: Julio Jones -145 | Antonio Brown +105

For as bad as both defenses have looked through the first month of the season, the Steelers pass defense has underachieved in a different way than the Falcons. To date, Pittsburgh has allowed opposing wide receivers to rack up 883 yards, while the Falcons banged up secondary has only allowed 681 yards. That's because over the past three weeks, Atlanta has allowed opposing running backs to catch and run wild to the tune of 310 receiving yards for the season (3rd-most in NFL).

Whether these stats matter when it comes to Julio and Antonio may be moot, but they are interesting. However, after another disappointing offensive performance and the fact he hasn't finished with more than 67 receiving yards since Week 1, this is where you could see Brown break out of the funk.

The Bet: Brown.

Odds: Yes +1400 | No -10000

Thomas rolled the dice, bet on himself and rolled snake eyes. His season-ending broken leg comes at a hefty price and that's the fact he didn't ink a new, long-term contract before it happened. He's an unrestricted free agent next year and considering the bird he flipped in the general direction of the Seahawks bench, the Legion of Boom Era can probably be laid to rest.

The Bet: NO

Odds: Yes +350 | No -600

On only 21 targets, Ridley has caught 15 passes and six of them have resulted in touchdowns. It's an unsustainable rate this early in the season. His target share is 18% below Julio Jones'. Sometimes it's about being in the right place at the right time and that's Ridley's story through the first four weeks.

The Bet: NO

Odds: Baker Mayfield +155 | Saquon Barkley +275 | Calvin Ridley +550

One month ago, after an impressive win at Detroit, Sam Darnold was the king of this mountain. Now, he's not even considered a top-three favorite. Despite the turnovers and heartbreaking loss at Oakland last Sunday, Mayfield is leading an entertaining Browns offense, which is something that couldn't be said for the better part of the last decade. If he continues to show growth and helps get the Browns to 5 wins or so, he'll lock this award up by December.

The Bet: Baker

Odds: Yes -145 | No +105

Mahomes' QB rating the first three games: 127.5 | 154.8 | 115.5 and Mahomes' QB rating at Denver Monday night: 89.5. The Broncos pass rush got to Mahomes and despite the national broadcast crew's favorable reactions to Mahomes' play, the first-year starter wasn't as efficient as he needs to be ahead of a matchup against the league's best defense. Granted, the Jaguars, who finished second in the league in interceptions last year, only have one pick to-date this season, but it only takes one tipped pass for people to cash in on this bet. 

The Bet: YES

Over 315 | Under 315

This would be a no brainer if Le'Veon Bell was in the Steelers backfield. Before the Ravens held Big Ben to 274 passing yards on 57.4 percent passing, he averaged 380 pass yards per game through the first three weeks. The Falcons are allowing opposing quarterbacks to pass for 284 yards per game. One of the keys will be for James Connor to catch and run out of the backfield. He's averaging 4-5 receptions and 41 receiving yards per game.

The Bet: OVER

Over 70 | Under 70

Did you know if you ignored Saquon Barkley's four longest rushes of the season, he'd be averaging just 2.5 yards per rush on 52 attempts? Although Carolina's rush defense has allowed 4.9 yards per carry in its first three games, the Panthers are also refreshed off the Week 4 BYE. If they contain Saquon and avoid him breaking a long one, this UNDER will hit.

The Bet: UNDER

Arizona's defense has allowed a league-high seven rushing touchdowns and 141.3 rush yards per game this season. While Jimmy Garoppolo's season-ending ACL tear was a setback, it didn't deter the 49ers from putting a scare into the Los Angeles Chargers last weekend. Although Matt Breida has been limited at practice this week, he's likely to play against the Cardinals on Sunday. Against the only team ranked below the Cardinals in rush defense, Detroit, Breida carried the ball 11 times for 138 yards and a touchdown.

The Bet: YES

Fuller has been fighting through a hamstring injury at practice, but considers himself probable to play against Dallas this weekend. One of Deshaun Watson's favorite targets, Fuller has a touchdown in each of his first three games this season and has seen 16 targets over the past two weeks. The Cowboys boast a top 10 defense in terms of pass yards allowed per game, but they've allowed five touchdowns and are still in search of their first interception. If Fuller can suit up, Pro Football Focus says he has the 10th-best Wide Receiver / Cornerback matchup of the weekend.

The Bet: YES

The Cardinals can't stop the run and San Francisco struggles to cover opposing tight ends. The Niners have allowed opposing players at the position to rack up over 200 yards and score four touchdowns through four games. Although our Josh Rosen sample size is small, he only targeted Seals Jones four times in his first start. Granted, the tight end caught two passes for 52 yards, but think we need to give Rosen some time before we start backing prop bets attached to his play.

The Bet: NO