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NFL preseason best bets for Thursday 8/10: Drew Lock is anything but

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 8/10/23

Football is back, baby! Well, sort of.

The official preseason NFL schedule kicks off Thursday night with the Houston Texans taking on the New England Patriots and the Minnesota Vikings facing the Seattle Seahawks. It may not be the real thing, but there are still plenty of ways to attack the preseason from a betting perspective.

Let's go through each matchup and pick out a spread and total bet for each game.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

It feels wrong to say the Texans have a decisive advantage at the quarterback position in a game of any magnitude, but that's going to be the case in Thursday night's preseason opener against the Patriots.

Rookie CJ Stroud will get the start for Houston, and behind him are two experienced signalcallers in Davis Mills and Case Keenum. Mills started 15 games for the Texans last season, and Keenum was starting in the NFC Championship Game just a few years ago. This is a loaded quarterback room by preseason standards.

On the other side, Mac Jones is unlikely to play in the opener. Bailey Zappe will probably start the game under center, but I can't envision him playing more than a quarter with the offensive line injuries New England is dealing with right now. That leaves Trace McSorley and Malik Cunningham to split at least three quarters. McSorley simply doesn't have the arm to compete at the NFL level, and Cunningham has been taking reps at wide receiver during training camp. The Pats won't have much success throwing the ball Thursday night.

As for the total, this first-half under of 19.5 would be 6-0 in New England's last six preseason games. The Patriots don't mind starting slow, and the projected combination of wind and rain should quell these two passing attacks early on.

Additionally, both teams are going to be dipping into the reserves along the offensive line with injuries abound, and they're going to settle for field goals more often because of the kicker competitions going on in camp.

I'm expecting a slow start in this one, and the Texans should be able to pull away in the second half.

The bets:
Texans -3.5 (-115 FanDuel)
Under 19.5 first half (-115 DraftKings)

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks

This is more of an even matchup when it comes to the quarterback position. Starters Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith will be watching from the sidelines Thursday night, so it'll be all backups for both the Vikings and Seahawks.

Minnesota will trot out Nick Mullens and rookie Jaren Hall, while Seattle will start Drew Lock and mix in rookie Holton Ahlers. Mullens and Lock are similar players in that they aren't talented enough to lead their own team, but they're both solid backups most teams would love to have in the locker room. Neither QB stands out above the other, so I'm not sure why oddsmakers are giving Lock a 3.5-point cushion in this one. If anything, Lock is more likely to turn the ball over than Mullens.

Hall has been receiving rave reviews from Vikings camp, and he should be able to move the chains with his legs if the passing offense goes stale. Ahlers, on the other hand, doesn't have an NFL arm and isn't the same scrambler Hall is. I'd give the QB advantage to Minnesota here, so I don't think the Vikings should be getting more than a field goal in this game.

The bets:
Vikings +3.5 (-110 FD)
Under 35 (-108 DK)

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