NFL Rantings: Diagnosing the NFC Super Bowl Contenders

One glance at this year's AFC pretty much tells you that it's still very much an elitist conference. Consider: the last team who wasn't the Steelers, Patriots, or Colts to come out of the AFC was...the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders have fallen so far since that super bowl appearance, it's remarkable that the AFC hasn't had a worst to first story.Over the same time frame, the NFC has watched six different teams make a trip to the Super Bowl, including the Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, and Carolina Panthers for the first time in the history of their respective franchises.There's a distinct difference between a playoff contender and a super bowl contender. For a team in the AFC to be a super bowl contender, you pretty much have to be a member of the elite class (add Baltimore and San Diego to the three teams above), or an equivalent of last year's Tennessee Titans, who were a 13 win team. Take the 11 win Miami Dolphins last year. Playoff contender? They were legit since week 3. Best team in the AFC East? You could make that argument. Super bowl contender? Not last year. They were the #3 seed in the AFC playoffs, but you knew they couldn't get by Baltimore, then Pittsburgh, and then Tennessee or San Diego. They were a perfect example of playoff team who was no threat to make the super bowl.In the NFC, though, things are far more wide open on a year to year basis. Last year, the Arizona Cardinals would have been at the top of the list of NFC playoff teams unlikely to make a super bowl run. I looked at the Vikings last year, and decided they couldn't get past the Eagles, AND past the Panthers, AND still have enough left to beat the Giants. They weren't good enough to make that run. While I don't think anyone thought the Cardinals were good enough to beat the Panthers (they won by four scores), their playoff road was considerably easier than Minnesota's.Today's article looks at potential super bowl contenders in the NFC. I'm going to identify seven teams who could do some damage in the playoffs if they get in. That does not mean that these six teams will make the playoffs, especially considering just how wide open the NFC North is this year (if you gave me 10-1 odds on the Lions winning it, I'd take you up on it). We'll look at just the teams who are complete enough to make a run if they get in, and we'll handicap the division winners in another post.The assumption: that none of these teams will win a bye. Any team that earns a bye in the regular season has a legitimate chance to sneak it's way to the super bowl even if they aren't a great team. We'll only look at teams who either have a history of stringing together some late season wins, or have the talent on the roster this year to do so.1) The New Orleans SaintsBest quarterbacks in the NFC: you could make an argument for Romo, Hasselbeck, or Warner, but it's Brees who leads the class. And regarding the NFC playoffs, having an established quarterback can be decisive. He's the one quarterback who can tear up the top line defenses that will litter this list.2) The Seattle SeahawksKeeping Matt Hasselbeck upright is the key to this season, but Seahawks defense, an embarrassment a year ago, is the top ten defensive unit that no one is talking about. If you think the Seahawks will post another double-digit loss season, you might be convinced that Hasselbeck's best years are behind him, that his line can't protect him, and that his receivers can't save him, but the subtle changes to the offense from new O.C. Greg Knapp should help Matt get the ball out of his hands, and behind this defense, the Seahawks are near the top of the list of NFC super bowl contenders.3) The New York GiantsOutside of the 2007 playoff run, the Giants are 0-3 in playoff games under Tom Coughlin. So what might make this year different from the failures and potentially more like the successes? They enter 2009 with the best defense in the NFC after bolstering depth in the offseason. Eli Manning has a freshly minted near-100 million dollar deal, and he'll hand off to Brandon Jacobs in the backfield, who is bound to be more productive in the playoffs than he was against the Eagles last year. If the Giants are in the playoffs, it's a pretty good indicator they've struck a good balance at WR.4) The Chicago BearsFar from a likely division winner, the Bears look to return to the top of the defensive charts, which will allow offseason acquisition Jay Cutler to get his feet wet in an offense that will require him to be more superman than game manager. Thing is, if the Bears defense doesn't carry them, they probably can't outlast the rest of the NFC North. If the do get a top defensive unit from Lovie Smith, this team is so dangerous in the playoffs.5) The Washington RedskinsAnother team who will look to post top five defensive numbers, the Redskins enter the 2009 season far more unsettled than any other team on offense. However, while the offense has always been a difficult unit to watch, they are only two years removed from a four game winning streak that put them into the playoffs and four years removed from a six game winning streak that put them one win from the NFC Championship game. Put simply, when the Redskins defense gets hot, it can single-handedly take over games, and combined with a smart quarterback in Jason Campbell, it makes them a serious playoff threat.6) The Arizona CardinalsWhat a story it would be if the Cardinals made it to the super bowl in two consecutive years, but how unlikely is it? It's tough to win three consecutive playoff games in back-to-back seasons, so the Cardinals chances increase disproportionately if they can secure a bye week in the NFC playoffs. Of course, under the assumption proposed in this scenario, the Cards are simply unlikely to return to the super bowl, but have at least proven it possible.7) The Philadelphia EaglesI was going to leave the Eagles off this list because I'm not sure they compare well to other Eagles teams, but given the continued presence of Donovan McNabb, the Eagles are annually one of the most likely teams to win three consecutive playoff games. McNabb is a better quarterback in the playoffs, historically, than he's been in the regular season. In fact, he's never lost his first round playoff game in 6 trips. So based on the preponderance of evidence, it would have been irresponsible to not mention the Eagles as a super bowl contender, even if they are a playoff longshot.