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Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17). Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

NFL 'SNF' Week 18: Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills betting picks, preview

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 1/5/24

We've made it to the final week of the NFL regular season, and the Week 18 slate closes out with a bang on "Sunday Night Football" when the Miami Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills in a crucial AFC East battle. Let's dive into the matchup and target a two-pack of bets for the winner-take-all division showdown.

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills betting odds, preview

Spread: Bills -2.5, Over/under: 48.5, Moneyline: Bills -155 | Dolphins +130

The NFL couldn't have dreamt of a more impactful game to close out the regular season. The Dolphins have already clinched a playoff spot at 11-5, but they could fall from the No. 2 seed in the AFC to a wild-card spot if they lose this Sunday. The Bills would steal the AFC East title and the No. 2 seed with a win on "SNF." If they lose, though, the Bills could possibly miss the playoffs.

A loss against the Dolphins, plus a win by the Pittsburgh Steelers, a win by the Jacksonville Jaguars and a non-tie in the Houston Texans-Indianapolis Colts game would knock the Bills out of the playoffs.

Both teams enter Week 18 licking their wounds from last week. The Dolphins failed another contender test by losing, 56-19, to the Baltimore Ravens, while the Bills survived against the New England Patriots despite being outgained and looking sloppy all game. Although the team has struggled in two straight games, Buffalo is still a 2.5-point road favorite in the season finale.

One of the reasons for this point spread is Miami's discouraging injury report. The Dolphins will be without Bradley Chubb and Xavien Howard for the game, and Jerome Baker, Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are all listed as questionable. The Bills are the much healthier team at this point in the season.

'Sunday Night Football' betting picks

Dolphins +2.5 (+100 DraftKings)

The betting public seems to be down on the Dolphins because of their blowout loss to the Ravens last week, but they knocked off the Dallas Cowboys in an impressive showing the week before. The Bills, on the other hand, barely beat the Easton Stick-led Los Angeles Chargers and the New England Patriots in the last two weeks. Those are two of the five worst teams in the NFL, and the Bills weren't close to covering in either game.

Sure, Buffalo crushed Miami in the first meeting three months ago, but the Dolphins are a much different team at home. The Dolphins are 7-1 at home this season and 4-4 on the road. They shouldn't be getting points in this game, so grabbing the +2.5 is a no-brainer.

Stefon Diggs under 61.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

What in the world happened to Stefon Diggs? The star wide receiver, after a superb start to the season, has fallen off a cliff down the stretch of the season. Diggs hasn't recorded more than 74 receiving yards in the last seven games, and he's gone under 61.5 yards in six of the last seven.

The Bills have been riding James Cook and the running game over the last month, and they should bring the same game plan to Miami. Additionally, Diggs will be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey for most of the night. Josh Allen would be wise to avoid the interception machine instead of force-feeding his favorite target.

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