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NFL Sunday touchdown props: Three players in terrific spots for Week 5
Four weeks into the season, and defenses are really starting to show their true colors. It's always nice to find an intersection of a defense that is allowing a ton of yards to a position and letting that position find the end zone with regularity. That's exactly what we have on our hands here with three touchdown bets for NFL Week 5.
I recommend half-unit wagers on all three of the below prop bets.
Zay Flowers TD (+200 DraftKings)
This isn't the first time I've bet on a Zay Flowers touchdown. The rookie still has not found the end zone, and this feels like a great time for him to finally check off that career box.
Pittsburgh is tied for the NFL lead with six touchdowns allowed to wide receivers, and their vulnerabilities to the position go deeper than that. Not only are WRs scoring against the Steelers, but Pittsburgh is also having a hard time slowing down passing attacks in any form.
The Steelers have allowed the sixth-highest yards/pass attempt and are tied for the seventh-most 20+ yard passes allowed. This has caused Pittsburgh to rank fifth in terms of yards allowed to wideouts.
Flowers is playing 88% of the snaps this year, is leading the team with 29 targets, and has seen six looks inside the red zone. It's time to get this man a touchdown!!
Garrett Wilson TD (+210 Barstool)
Of course we need to bet someone on the Jets to score against the Broncos. Denver has let up a casual 14 touchdowns over the past two weeks, and are allowing a very bureaucratic six touchdowns to WRs (tied-most) and 11 touchdowns to RBs (most). I prefer looking to the air here, mostly because the prices are better, but also because Denver has gotten destroyed by explosive passing plays.
Wilson is leading the Jets in targets with 36, and he's seen six red zone targets, five more than the next closest WR. Wilson has already scored twice, and I'm surprised we're getting his odds here.
De'Von Achane TD (+107 Barstool)
I typically prefer to find TD odds closer to +200, but the fact De'Von Achane is at plus-money at all is reason enough to jump on the exciting Dolphins rookie RB.
Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.
Over the past two weeks, Achane has scored six times, and last week he out-snapped Raheem Mostert by 11 snaps. Not only is he getting on the field, but he's been a walking big-play. He's averaging a truly absurd 11.4 yards per carry, going for 100+ in back-to-back weeks.
The Dolphins are facing a Giants team that has had real issues slowing down running backs. The ground game should be flowing, and for good measure, New York has allowed five touchdowns to RBs, tied for fifth-most.
Year-to-date: 7-18 (-0.69u)
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