NFL Week 12: Picks and preview

TV: CBS            LINE: Buffalo -9.5

Considering the suboptimal circumstances surrounding their game against the Browns – the game was moved, the Bills’ travel to Detroit was not exactly easy, et cetera – it’s probably worth grading Buffalo on a curve. Take all the external factors into account and it’s hard not to be impressed by the team’s performance. Josh Allen and company took control of the game in the third quarter, and never let the Browns have a serious shot to win it. They even ran the ball, and didn’t need Allen to do it! Detroit got their third win in a row thanks to an opportunistic defense, Jamaal Williams’ nose for the end zone, and some timely passing by Jared Goff. It was an exercise in team-oriented, complementary football. A total “Football Guy” win, one that likely warmed the cockles of Dan Campbell’s heart. Are the Lions frisky? This game ought to provide an answer.

Look smart to your friends:

-Allen is no turkey on Thanksgiving; he’s 2-0 on Turkey Day, with 6 total touchdowns and a 122.0 passer rating.

-Jamaal Williams’ 3 rushing touchdowns last week made him just the fourth running back since 2000 with 5+ games of 2+ rushing touchdowns in his team’s first 10.

The pick: Bills 31 Lions 23

TV: FOX            LINE: Dallas -10

The Giants were, to put it kindly, not good against Detroit. The 31-18 final score was actually closer than play on the field would have suggested. Daniel Jones threw for a lot of yardage, which is nice if you like numbers, but he was playing from behind the whole game, and his pair of interceptions were brutal, one leading directly to a Lions touchdown. New York has often won by the narrowest of margins this year; it’s fair to wonder if that’s catching up to them. “Why not make the whole team out of Micah Parsons and Tony Pollard?” It’s a question you’re hearing more and more these days. Parsons single-handedly destroyed the Vikings’ offense, sacking Kirk Cousins twice and forcing a fumble, and after getting gashed on the ground the previous few weeks, Dallas held the Vikings to 73 yards rushing. Dak Prescott was sharp, and Pollard had nearly 200 yards from scrimmage and two receiving touchdowns. It’s clear who the best back in Big D is.

Look smart to your friends:

-This might be a stat Giants fans would like to see change this time around, but safety Julian Love was busy in the teams’ Week 3 meeting, totaling a team-leading 14 tackles.

-Pollard became the fourth player since 1990 with 75+ rushing yards, 100+ receiving yards and 2+ receiving touchdowns in a single game when he lit up the Vikings last week.

The pick: Cowboys 27 Giants 23

TV: NBC            LINE: Minnesota -2.5

You wanna bet last week’s win was Bill Belichick’s favorite in a long time? His team held the Jets to 2 yards of offense in the second half. That is not a misprint. And his team won the game when rookie Marcus Jones took a punt back 84 yards for a touchdown with five seconds left. If that isn’t the kind of ugly win that would cause Belichick great delight, I don’t know what is. That said, as bad as the Vikings looked last week, Kirk Cousins is most definitely not Zach Wilson. Minnesota got whupped from start to finish by the Cowboys, but given the way the Vikings have played the rest of the year, they’ve earned the right to have a bad game. Christian Darrisaw is already out for this game with a concussion, but Minnesota will at least have a chance to game-plan for his absence instead of trying to adjust on the fly.

Look smart to your friends:

-Rhamondre Stevenson has continued to emerge as a major weapon this year; he’s tied for fifth among running backs with 41 catches in addition to his 644 rushing yards.

-Cousins has been very good in limited Thanksgiving action, totaling 691 passing yards, 5 touchdowns and just 1 interception in two career Thanksgiving starts.

The pick: Vikings 28 Patriots 17

TV: FOX            LINE: Tampa Bay -3.5

The Buccaneers got a week to gear up for whatever playoff push they’re going to mount, and they’ll get a desperate Browns team on the other side of the field. Tampa Bay’s win in Germany wasn’t necessarily a work of art, but they don’t all have to be Van Goghs. The question for Tampa Bay is simple: Can the offensive line improve enough to earn Tom Brady’s trust, and create a passable running game? If the answer is yes, Tampa could be sneaky down the stretch. Jacoby Brissett threw three touchdowns against Buffalo, and at times looked sharp, but the last one was cosmetic, and the Browns faded in the second half against the Bills. Cleveland has to have this game if they want any chance to go on a Deshaun Watson-fueled run to a possible wild card in the AFC. If they can get to Brady early, they’ll have a realistic chance of getting the win.

Look smart to your friends:

-Mike Evans needs just 28 receiving yards to become the 6^th player ever with 10,000 receiving yards and 75+ receiving yards in his first nine seasons.

-Amari Cooper could be due for a big game; he had a career-high 13 receptions for 139 yards and 2 touchdowns in his last outing against the Buccaneers.

The pick: Buccaneers 26 Browns 23

TV: CBS            LINE: Cincinnati -2.5

Joe Burrow absolutely cooked the Steelers’ defense despite not having Ja’Marr Chase, and losing Joe Mixon early on against Pittsburgh. Burrow threw two interceptions, but the eye test showed that he was largely having his way with Mike Tomlin’s team, repeatedly connecting with Tee Higgins and Samaje Perine. Cincy’s defense helped out by stifling Pittsburgh in the second half, but the task will be tougher against the confident, bruising Titans. Tennessee’s running game and attitude get much of the credit for their success, but Ryan Tannehill was very sharp against the Packers last Thursday. Tannehill threw for 333 yards and repeatedly shredded Green Bay down the field, and Treylon Burks had a breakout game, with 111 yards on 7 catches. What might have been most impressive about the win was the way Tennessee completely shut down the Packers late, and made the final quarter stunningly anti-climactic. I’m always skeptical of the Titans, but they’ve won 7 of their last 8.

Look smart to your friends:

-Jessie Bates has been impactful against the Titans. He’s going for his third-straight game against Tennessee with an interception.

-Derrick Henry continues to stack accolades; he became just the fifth running back all-time with 10+ rushing touchdowns in five consecutive seasons.

The pick: Titans 30 Bengals 28

TV: CBS            LINE: Miami -13.5

Houston’s the worst team in football. I’ve said some nice things about them; they have draft picks galore, they have Dameon Pierce, and so on. That said, 1-8-1 is 1-8-1. The Texans simply do not have the horses to keep up with really good teams, and now they’re starting to fade pretty badly. The schedule ahead is an absolute meat-grinder, and it’s very plausible that Houston will have the top pick in the draft wrapped up by Christmas. The Dolphins, I will continue to remind you, are 7-0 when Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes the game. I don’t think the league really has any answers for what he and Mike McDaniel are cooking up, so now the focus for Miami must be on trying to secure home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. It’s not that farfetched. If the Dolphins find even a little defensive consistency, particularly against better offenses, watch out.

Look smart to your friends:

-It’s just about fait accompli at this point, but Pierce needs just 85 scrimmage yards to become the third rookie in Texans history (Steve Slaton and Domenick Williams) to top 1,000.

-Tyreek Hill needs one touchdown catch to become the fourth player ever (Gary Clark, Larry Fitzgerald, and Marvin Harrison) with 50+ catches and 5+ receiving touchdowns in each of his first seven seasons.

The pick: Dolphins 40 Texans 21

TV: FOX            LINE: New York -6

Justin Fields is starting to get beaten up, and his team is starting to get frustrated about uncalled late hits. Fields is very physically impressive, which might explain why he’s not getting that many calls, but either way, Chicago has to protect its franchise passer. He was clearly not himself against Atlanta, particularly in the second half, and even though he’s made a huge amount of progress in the last two months, he and the Bears’ offense are still hamstrung when taken out of their running element. The Jets were, how does one say this, atrocious against New England. Not their defense, mind you, but the offense, which managed all of 2 yards in the final 30 minutes. The wind was a challenge in Foxborough, to be sure, but Mac Jones threw for over 200 yards, and he’s not exactly Patrick Mahomes. The whole thing was bad enough to get Zach Wilson benched. Will Mike White have more luck? He can’t be much worse.

Look smart to your friends:

-Last week, Fields became just the second player in the Super Bowl era (Kyler Murray) with both a passing and rushing touchdown in five straight games.

-James Robinson needs just two touchdowns to join Arian Foster and Antonio Gates as the only undrafted players in the common-draft era with 25+ touchdowns in their first three seasons.

The pick: Jets 24 Bears 21

TV: FOX            LINE: Washington -4.5

Look at Atlanta, still very much hanging around in the NFC South race. The Falcons survived the Justin Fields Experience, albeit barely, and mostly thanks to a very timely Cordarrelle Patterson kick-return touchdown, which came just when it seemed that the Bears were pulling away. It’s kind of funny; the Falcons have a losing record, many of their fans still want to see Marcus Mariota benched, yet they’re very much in a playoff race. They’re pot committed for at least another week or two, particularly if Tampa Bay loses. Washington’s defensive line continues to dominate opponents, and while the Commanders aren’t going to win any awards for offensive excellence, what they’re doing is effective, and is keeping them right in the thick of things in the suddenly stout NFC East. They also have an odd situation; Carson Wentz is getting healthier, but the team has clearly rallied around Taylor Heinicke, despite his pedestrian numbers. If you know anything about Wentz, you know Ron Rivera has to continue to roll with Heinicke.

Look smart to your friends:

-Patterson’s kick-return touchdown was the ninth of his career, which broke a tie with Josh Cribbs and Leon Washington for the most in NFL history.

-Daron Payne continues to have a huge season for Washington; his 6.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss are both career highs, and he has a sack in 3 of his last 4 games.

The pick: Commanders 23 Falcons 21

TV: FOX            LINE: Denver -2

What’s worse than losing to the Raiders once? How about losing to the Raiders twice. Nathaniel Hackett gave up play-calling duties before last week’s game, and it still didn’t matter for Denver. The Broncos could do nothing to stop Davante Adams, who caught the game-winning touchdown in overtime, and piled up 141 yards and 2 touchdowns on 7 receptions. Denver’s defense, which has been stout all year, also allowed a 7-play, 71-yard Raiders drive to get the tying field goal and force overtime. I’m all out of jokes. What a pathetic team. Carolina at least has an excuse to be pathetic; they didn’t sign a quarterback to a massive contract extension after trading a boatload of assets for him. The Panthers fought the Ravens hard, but never got their running game – specifically D’Onta Foreman – going against Baltimore. In the absence of a ground threat, Baker Mayfield could do precious little. There are pieces here and there in Charlotte, particularly on defense, but there is also much work to be done.

Look smart to your friends:

-This isn’t a “traditional” stat by any means, but it bears repeating that Russell Wilson’s new home in suburban Denver currently has five more bathrooms (12) than he does touchdown passes this year (7).

- D’Onta Foreman got shut down last week, but he is going for his third-straight home game with 130+ scrimmage yards, and already has a career-high 4 rushing touchdowns this season.

The pick: Broncos 12 Panthers 11

TV: CBS            LINE: Baltimore -4

Baltimore continued what has become a trend of late, grinding out a win against an opponent of middling quality. The Ravens have won four in a row, and have largely stuck to the same formula; run the ball, get enough from Lamar Jackson when it matters, and keep from making crippling mistakes. I have no idea whether or not this is a team that’s laying in the weeds in the AFC, or one that is primed to get blown out by a higher-octane opponent. Jacksonville was 2-1, once upon a time, but now the Jaguars have lost 6 of 7, all while being frustratingly close in virtually every one of those losses. In fact, only their most recent defeat, at Kansas City, was more than a one-score game. Turnovers and overall sloppiness are to blame; at some point, a young team with a young quarterback stops getting to use that youth as an excuse.

Look smart to your friends:

-Roquan Smith had a huge game in his only meeting against Jacksonville, tallying 8 tackles, 2 interceptions and a fumble recovery against them in 2020.

-Christian Kirk hasn’t been a superstar by any stretch, but he has followed up what was a snickered-at contract with his best season to date. Kirk’s 7 touchdown catches so far are a career-high.

The pick: Jaguars 28 Ravens 24

TV: CBS            LINE: Los Angeles -3

So close, yet so far. It was the same old story for the Chargers against the Chiefs; play pretty well, weather Kansas City’s storm, take a late lead…and lose, when Patrick Mahomes does *waves arms around wildly* Patrick Mahomes things. Los Angeles could really have used the win for a variety of reasons, not the least of which as a confidence boost, given how many injuries they’re still dealing with. Brandon Staley’s team has at least four very winnable games down the stretch, and this is one of them. Given the state of the AFC, they can ill afford another stumble. The Cardinals stink. You know, if you read this preview every week, that this has been my opinion of them forever. They had something of an excuse against San Francisco in that Kyler Murray wasn’t healthy, but they’ve stunk up the joint when he’s been healthy. Every time I look at Kliff Kingsbury, I have the same thought: Why aren’t more people talking about this guy losing his job? I would be happy to have anyone tell me what he’s bringing to the table at this point. It isn’t wins, I know that much.

Look smart to your friends:

-Derwin James moves all over the field for the Chargers, and has the numbers to prove it. He leads all NFL defensive backs with 92 tackles this year.

-James Conner has been a touchdown-maker in two career games against the Chargers; he’s looking for his third-straight game against Los Angeles with 2+ touchdowns.

The pick: Chargers 31 Cardinals 24

TV: CBS            LINE: Seattle -3.5

Let me be very clear: The Raiders are not good. Having said that, they’re exactly the kind of bad team I wouldn’t want to play if my team was good. When Derek Carr and Davante Adams get it going, they can put up yards and points in a hurry, and in Josh Jacobs, they have the kind of ground option that can make them very tough to defend. I use “can” as a qualifier mostly because this team is horribly coached, and Josh McDaniels is pretty clearly cut out to be an offensive coordinator and not a head coach. Seattle still got a pretty efficient game from Geno Smith in Germany two weeks ago, but it wasn’t enough. The challenge for Smith and the Seahawks will be to stay the course; his success has not been fluky, but it has been unexpected. Will any doubt start to creep in? What if the Raiders get out to an early lead? The Seahawks are well-coached and believe in what they’re doing, but this game strikes me as a potentially interesting test.

Look smart to your friends:

-The Raiders are a mess, but Josh Jacobs has quietly produced at a high level. He’s second in the NFL with 1,181 scrimmage yards and is the only player in the league with 1,100+ scrimmage yards in each of the past four seasons.

-Here’s a random one to impress your friends: Cornerback Coby Bryant leads the NFL with four forced fumbles this season.

The pick: Seahawks 28 Raiders 26

TV: FOX            LINE: Kansas City -15.5

Matthew Stafford was concussed and the Rams lost their fourth game in a row, the latest lowlight in a season full of them. At this point, Los Angeles is completely unrecognizable compared to the team that hoisted the Lombardi Trophy last season, and things aren’t about to get any better with the Chiefs coming to town. It’s not like the cavalry is on the way in next year’s draft, either. The Rams are what they are: A bad football team that won’t get better, and Stafford is already out for this game. When Kansas City plays the Chargers, you get the notion that they’re Lucy, and Los Angeles is Charlie Brown, and Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce delight in leaving the ball there to be kicked for longer and longer stretches each time, only to pull it away at the absolute last second. That is, of course, exactly what they did on Sunday night, all but sealing up the AFC West, and reminding anyone tempted to crown the Bills, Ravens or anyone else that the AFC’s Big Bad wears red and white.

Look smart to your friends:

-Bryce Perkins is poised to start in Stafford’s place, and…he had 103 yards (64 passing, 39 rushing) in relief of Stafford last week. Go Bryce!

-Mahomes really misses Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs’ quarterback leads the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns this season, and has 2+ touchdown passes in six of his last seven home starts.

The pick: Chiefs 35 Rams 14

TV: FOX            LINE: San Francisco -9.5

Congratulations to the Saints. Their faith in Andy Dalton was rewarded, as Dalton vivisected the Rams’ defense, throwing for 260 yards and 3 touchdowns, including a beautiful deep shot to Chris Olave. Dalton managed the game perfectly, Taysom Hill gave New Orleans a change of pace on the ground that allowed them to sustain drives, and the defense did enough to get the win, particularly after Matthew Stafford was knocked out of the game. They’ll play a real football team this week, though, so the sledding will be much tougher. The Niners looked exactly like the extremely dangerous team I’ve touted them as during their rout of the Cardinals in Mexico City. Jimmy Garoppolo was in full control, all of San Francisco’s weapons were in use, and the defense never let Colt McCoy and Arizona get into the game. Even if it came against a spiraling team, it was still a dominant win and showed just how tough San Francisco can be when they get going.

Look smart to your friends:

-Sure, you hear all about Travis Kelce, and in this game, George Kittle will get lots of attention, but New Orleans’ Juwan Johnson has a career-high 5 touchdown catches this year, tied for second-most among tight ends in the league this year.

-You know Christian McCaffrey is great, but how about this: He’s the only player in NFL history to average 50+ rushing yards (61.6) and 50+ receiving yards (51.1) per game.

The pick: 49ers 30 Saints 21

TV: NBC            LINE: Philadelphia -6.5

We all thought Green Bay was maybe, just maybe, on its way back. They had themselves a nice win over Dallas, had the Titans coming to Lambeau Field on a short week and then…they got stomped, and worse yet, had the will taken out of them in the fourth quarter. That was perhaps the most jarring thing about the loss; when the game was on the line in the fourth quarter, Aaron Rodgers had nothing, no juice. The problems in Green Bay have not been solved. Philadelphia went to Indianapolis and got themselves a character win against the Colts. Philly trailed almost the entire game, but when Indianapolis gave them just enough of a window, they jumped right through it, and Jalen Hurts made enough plays to get the win. Most really good teams go through lulls at some point in the season, and this might be exactly that for the Eagles. A command performance against the reeling Packers would go a long way toward shaking Philly out of these mild doldrums.

Look smart to your friends:

-Rodgers has been spectacular on Sunday Night Football in his career, with 81 total touchdowns (77 pass, 4 rush) and just 12 interceptions in 33 career starts.

-In a league filled with big-name cornerbacks, C.J. Gardner-Johnson has the lead with 6 interceptions this year, which is also a career-high.

The pick: Eagles 29 Packers 24

TV: ESPN            LINE: Indianapolis -2.5

For a half, Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett looked like he was starting to figure things out, and the Steelers had a 20-17 lead over the Bengals. The Steelers’ second-half drives looked like this: Punt, punt, punt, field goal (on a drive that started on the Bengals’ 21), punt, punt, turnover on downs, meaningless touchdown drive. Pickett is still the only rookie quarterback actually starting, and it’s clear that he has a lot of work to do, and that Pittsburgh also isn’t very good. The Colts battled hard against the Eagles all game long, but it’s not rocket science that, when going against a very good team, settling for field goals won’t cut it. Had Indianapolis cashed in with a touchdown when gifted great field position early in the third quarter, they might well have held on to win. That they couldn’t get it done is both an indicator of how good the Eagles are, but also how far the Colts have to go.

Look smart to your friends:

-The Steelers’ offense has struggled mightily for most of the year, but George Pickens is bidding for his third game in a row with a touchdown.

-Jonathan Taylor tends to produce against the AFC North. He’s going for his third-straight game with 2+ touchdowns.

The pick: Colts 21 Steelers 16