Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (22). Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK / USA TODAY NETWORK

NFL Week 13: Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers betting picks, preview

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 11/30/23

This game between the Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers may not seem like one ripe with betting opportunity at first glance, but there's a very clear reason why one team is worth backing.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Betting Odds

Spread: Pittsburgh -5.5, Over/under: 41 points, Arizona +195 | Pittsburgh -238

Arizona comes into this one 2-10, the second worst record in the NFL. They're 0-6 on the road and despite Kyler Murray's return, have lost two straight games. The Cardinals defense has shown no improvement throughout the year despite their defensive-minded head coach in Jonathan Gannon.

The run defense in particular hasn't been able to slow down running backs at all.

On the flip side, Pittsburgh is currently sitting at 7-4, fifth in the AFC. This is despite so-so QB play from Kenny Pickett, a testament to how strong the Steelers defense is, namely T.J. Watt.

The Steelers are 4-2 at home this season and can add some much needed insurance in the win column this week against an inferior opponent in the Cardinals.

Arizona is 6-6 ATS and and 7-5 to the over this year. Pittsburgh 7-4 ATS and 9-2 to the under.

Betting Picks for Arizona vs. Pittsburgh

Steelers -5.5

The run game is what you need to focus on here. This is a clear disparity between units. Arizona allows the second-most rushing yards per game to RBs, the sixth-highest yards per rush, and DVOA ranks their run defense as the third-worst unit in football.

The Steelers, meanwhile, have been getting extremely strong play out of their running back duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The combo has yielded a top-12 yards per rush mark that extends drives and opens things up for Pickett and these receivers.

Expect Warren and Harris to pile up the yards while the Steelers defense stalls Murray and the Cardinals on offense. This should be a comfortable win for the Steelers at home, as Arizona once again projects to lose on the road.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

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