Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13). Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 14: Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers betting picks, preview

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 12/7/23

Dallas vs. Philadelphia and Kansas City vs. Buffalo are understandably the stars of the show in Week 14, but Sunday's divisional matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has just as much on the line. The winner of Sunday's clash will take control of first place in the NFC South and give themselves the best chance to grab the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoffs.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers betting odds, preview

Spread: Falcons -1, Over/under: 40.5, Moneyline: Falcons -124 | Buccaneers +106

The NFC South title may very well come down to this game. The 6-6 Falcons currently hold a slim lead in the division, but the 5-7 Bucs can steal the top spot with a win on Sunday.

This is the second time these two teams will face off this season. Back in Week 7, the Falcons went on the road and notched a 16-13 win thanks to a Younghoe Koo 51-yard field goal as time expired. Oddsmakers are expecting a similarly tight game this time around, as evidenced by the one-point spread.

Tampa Bay's defense, which is normally stout against the run, has been gashed for 288 rushing yards over the last two weeks. That's a worrisome trend heading into a matchup against a Falcons team that's starting to find its stride in the running game.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers betting picks

Over 40.5 (-106 FanDuel)

The final score of the previous matchup between these two is a bit misleading. Atlanta and Tampa Bay combined to score just 29 points in Week 7, but they racked up 730 total yards of offense. They also combined to score only one touchdown in seven red-zone appearances, and there were five total turnovers in the game.

Oh, and Bijan Robinson had one carry for three yards because he was dealing with an illness that wasn't disclosed before kick. The dynamic rookie should see 20-plus touches this time around.

Mike Evans anytime TD scorer (+140 DraftKings)

Baker Mayfield has been feeding Mike Evans as much as he can of late. Evans has 43 targets over Tampa Bay's last four games, and he's scored five touchdowns in that span. He also scored the Bucs' only touchdown in Week 7 with a 40-yard strike against this beatable secondary.

In a pivotal matchup for the Bucs' playoff chances, Mayfield is going to trust his best playmaker near the end zone.

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