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Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 1 bets: How last year's ATS trends can help you this season

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 8/22/23

We are oh so close to the 2023 NFL season kicking off. While turnover happens for all 32 teams each offseason, many teams are holistically the same, both with their players and coaching staffs.

As such, it's worth noting how each team fared against the spread (ATS) last season as you prep your Week 1 bets. Trends very much can carry over into a fresh season. Take the Chiefs, for example. They've failed to cover the spread in more than half their games in three straight seasons.

NFL best teams ATS in 2022

New York Giants (14-5)
Detroit Lions (12-5)
Cincinnati Bengals (13-6)
San Francisco 49ers (13-7)
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6-1)
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6-1)
Dallas Cowboys (11-8)
Tennessee Titans (9-7-1)
Miami Dolphins (10-8)

Nine teams covered at least two more games than not last year, headlined by the New York Giants at an impressive 14-5. What do the Giants and Lions have in common here? A lack of expectations from the public and betting market.

New York and Detroit were underdogs far more often than not, and their surprise seasons helped them boast elite betting marks. The Giants were underdogs in 14 of their 19 games, while the Lions were dogs in 11 of their 17.

The Chargers were 5-1 as underdogs last season, helping put them in the top five from last season. The 49ers were an impressive 12-5 as favorites, favored in all but three of their games.

NFL worst teams ATS in 2022

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-13-1)
Chicago Bears (5-11-1)
Indianapolis Colts (6-11)
Seattle Seahawks (7-11)
Los Angeles Rams (6-9-2)
New Orleans Saints (7-10)
Minnesota Vikings (7-10)
Denver Broncos (7-10)
Kansas City Chiefs (8-11-1)
New England Patriots (7-9-1)

There aren't too many surprises on this list; the bulk of what you see above were teams with bottom half of the league records. The Buccaneers did make the playoffs, but they had a losing record coming out of an abysmal NFC South, and their placement here shouldn't be a shock to anyone who followed the NFL last year.

Minnesota won its division and hosted a playoff game, but the Vikings notoriously had a negative point differential and found themselves in an incredible number of one-score games, thus explaining their 7-10 record ATS.

One surprise here is the Seahawks. Seattle made the playoffs and had a far better year than most thought they would; 7-11 ATS doesn't quite add up here.

When the Patriots were an underdog, it was for good reason, as New England went just 2-7 ATS as a dog in 2022.

Week 1 games of interest

Detroit Lions (+6.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs — No better place to start other than the season opener on Thursday, Sept. 7! The Lions will visit the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs as KC unveils its Super Bowl banner, and it's a testament to what is expected from Detroit this year that they are a part of this game.

Since Dan Campbell became the Lions coach, no team has a better record ATS than the Lions' 23-11 mark. As alluded to in the intro, Kansas City has covered the spread in just 44% of its games over the past three seasons.

That makes this spread interesting. Obviously, Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City are the league's best team. However, the Lions have talent on both sides of the ball and trends suggest they can keep this close.

The Chiefs were 3-5-1 ATS as a home favorite last season, while the Lions went 5-2 as a visiting underdog ATS.

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints — Mike Vrabel is 44-41-2 against the spread since becoming the coach of the Titans, while New Orleans was one of the worst teams to back last year ATS.

This is one game that might be better left alone. Derek Carr is now installed as the Saints' starting quarterback, opening up a level of unknown as it relates to this offense.

New Orleans was 2-2 as a home favorite last season, and Tennessee went 4-2-1 ATS as an underdog on the road.

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