Originally written on The Pass Rush  |  Last updated 9/6/12


Below are some quick over/under plays for NFL week 1 action. Be sure to check out all of my week 1 picks against the spread. My big play this week is a teaser of Texans -3/Under 50, my little play is the Panthers -2.5 over the Bucs. Be sure to sign up for our pick ‘em league for a chance to win an NFL Shop custom t-shirt.

INDIANAPOLIS @ CHICAGO BEARS – OVER/UNDER 43 – Touch call here. I’m not touching it. What kind of numbers is Andrew Luck capable of against a Bears defense? Nobody knows until we see it on Sunday. Stay away. Slight lean on the over due to the Colts suspect defense that gave up 26.9 PPG last season.

BUFFALO @ NEW YORK JETS – OVER/UNDER 40.5 – The bar is set pretty low for these teams. The Jets offense is struggling and the Jets defense will make it difficult for the Bills to score touchdowns. Slight lean on the under as both teams struggle to reach 20 points.

JACKSONVILLE @ MINNESOTA – OVER/UNDER 38 – I like the over here as the bar has been set pretty low. Just a gut feeling that this could be an back-and-forth shootout. Weird games happen in Minnesota. Can we possibly see a 27-24 game here? I think so.

MIAMI @ HOUSTON – OVER/UNDER 43 – I like this under here since Miami will struggle to score 10 points and Houston’s running game will slowly eat up clock against the 3rd ranked run defense from 2011.

ST. LOUIS @ DETROIT – OVER/UNDER 46 – Stafford will be throwing darts on Sunday and Bradford will try to keep up. A lot of passing will take place in this one.

PHILADELPHIA @ CLEVELAND – OVER/UNDER 46 – Eagles defensive line is poised to dominate the Browns and limit them offensively. I expect the Eagles to start slow out of the gate and them get things going in the 2nd half. Eagles win this one 24-10.

NEW ENGLAND @ TENNESSEE – OVER/UNDER 47 – Brady should be due for 27-31 points and the Titans should be able to come up with 20. Too close to call with a slight lean on the over.

WASHINGTON @ NEW ORLEANS – OVER/UNDER 49.5 – Over is typically the play to make on the Saints. Without 2 of their best defensive starters (Will Smith and Jonathan Vilma), the Redskins stand to hang around in this one while Brees does what he does at home — throw touchdowns.

ATLANTA @ KANSAS CITY – OVER/UNDER 41.5 – Not sure what to expect here. Vegas is thinking a Falcons win in the 24-17 ballpark which sounds about right. Over/under is too close to call here. Slight lean on the under.

SEATTLE @ ARIZONA – OVER/UNDER 41 – Low-scoring affairs are common when these teams square off. 20-23 and 13-10 were the outcomes last year. Slight lean on the under.

CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY – OVER/UNDER 46.5 – Game features two of the worst defenses from 2011. I’m expecting a lot of points.

PITTSBURGH @ DENVER – OVER/UNDER 44.5 – Peyton isn’t 100%. Expecting both teams to start slow. Lean on the under.

CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE – OVER/UNDER 41 – Baltimore won both and the over hit twice last year, 31-24 and 24-16. I’m feeling the under. Under is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 as home favorite. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 between these teams in Baltimore.

SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND – OVER/UNDER 47 – I’m expecting Oakland to upset the Chargers and for the score to be in the 24-17 range. Going under.

 

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