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NFL Week 5: New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos betting picks, preview
New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson. Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 5: New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos betting picks, preview

By Matt Wiesenfeld  |  Last updated 10/4/23

Neither of these teams is having the season they were planning for. In New York it is simple: Aaron Rodgers got hurt and there was obviously no reasonable backup plan. For Denver, they were hoping new leadership would turn things around. They won last week, but beating Chicago is something every team in the league is supposed to do, and they almost lost. Plus there were those 70 points they allowed to Miami the week before. The eye test is not good. 

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos Betting Trends and Odds

Sunday, Oct. 8, 2023 - 4:25 p.m. ET

Odds: Broncos -1.5, Over/under 43.5, New York +110 | Denver -130

Looking at this small spread it seems the only advantage oddsmakers think the Broncos have over the Jets is the location of the game. In totality, not even having a functional quarterback is enough to shift things in the Broncos' favor, or a coaching advantage. My, how things have not worked out in Denver. The very low number leaves lots of room to bet up the Broncos. Home favorites who only have to win are desirable too.

Picks for New York vs. Denver

Denver -1.5, Zach Wilson Longest Completion Over 33.5 (-110)

I am willing to admit that Zach Wilson showed us all a little something in that game against the Chiefs. The Jets kept it close but that was more about the defense than the offense so I am not willing to use real cash to back the Jets to keep it close again on the road. As for Denver, they were terrible against Chicago, a team they should never have been down 28-7. However, facing more embarrassment and ridicule than what followed allowing 70 points to the Dolphins, the Broncos dug deep and fought back for the win on the road. I think that positivity carries over to this week and I would definitely take Russell Wilson over the other Wilson, if I have to. Denver has an advantage on the sidelines too. 

I do think there is some value with the Jets' Wilson hitting one big play though. In two of the three games he has started, this prop would have cashed and New York is likely to be playing from behind and throwing the ball a lot. 

If you like Denver too, I wouldn't wait. Even though -2.5 is pretty much the same value I only see this number going up. 


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