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NFL Week 5 Sunday player props: Betting on two WRs breaking off big plays
I'm starting to fall back in love with long reception props. I've written about them countless times before, and we highlighted Terry McLaurin breaking off a big catch yesterday (he did).
The joy in betting them is simple as a viewer: You watch your QB uncork a deep ball and just pray to see your guy on the receiving end. I think I'm starting to find a groove again in this market, and there are two under-the-radar names I'm jumping on for Week 5.
Note: A lot of what I'm about to dissect would suggest these gentlemen are in good spots to just hit their normal receiving yardage. I still may play it that way in addition, but first and foremost I'm grabbing these long reception lines.
Allen Lazard over 17.5 longest reception (-110 DraftKings)
I'm honestly shocked we're getting this line. Lazard and the Jets are facing off against this horrible Denver secondary, a defense that seems contractually obligated to allow explosive passing plays.
The Broncos have seen 16 passes of 20+ yards against them this season, tied for the fourth-highest mark in the league. Thanks to that, the Broncos are allowing 8.9 yards per pass attempt, the highest mark in the NFL. We have to target some Jets receivers here, and while Garrett Wilson will get more targets, Allen Lazard is the main best positioned to take advantage of this vulnerability.
Lazard is the deep-threat on this offense, seeing an average depth of target (aDOT) of 15.6. That easily tops the team, and it's 13th in the league among WRs that have seen at least 10 targets. Thanks to that down-the-field usage, Lazard is averaging 16.9 yards/catch.
He should be able to break off a big play here, and I'm probably going back to his yardage also, set at just 34.5.
In four games, Lazard has hit this mark three times, seeing a long of 24, 21 and 39 yards.
Michael Wilson over 18.5 longest reception (-120 DraftKings)
Rookie Michael Wilson out of Arizona has a growing role in this Cardinals offense, and he's in an ideal spot to keep it rolling. Before we get to who he's playing, a quick look at his production and stats might be more than enough to convince you to join the ride.
Over the past three games, Wilson has recorded a long catch of 20+ yards. Week 2 his long was 21, Week 3 he connected on a 69-yard play, and last week Wilson's long was 33 yards.
He's smashing this line, and his receiving yard line for good measure (currently at 40.5).
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The reason Wilson has been crushing this over is because of his role on the Cardinals. Wilson has been targeted 20+ yards down the field six times in four games, most on the team. 35.3% of his targets are traveling 20+ yards down-field, absurd usage.
This has obviously helped buoy his aDOT, currently at 16.0, and he's averaging an identical 16.9 yards/catch that Lazard is.
Arizona is squaring off against the reeling Bengals this weekend, a defense that's tied for seventh-most 20+ yard passes allowed. Wilson will get his opportunities. This line is two yards too low in my book.
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