NFL win totals: The case for the Over with Green Bay

Green Bay was one of the really fun stories of the NFL last season. After they put the Aaron Rodgers stuff behind them they had a solid season, making the playoffs and then dominating Dallas before losing to San Francisco, a game they could have won. 

They won nine regular-season games a year ago but more important than that they have proof of concept with quarterback Jordan Love, who has been a lightning rod. 

Right now, their win total for the next season is set at 10.5. That would mean they need a couple of more wins than last season to cash but at +130 today, there is some good value there. 

Here is what I like.

Green Bay Packers Over 10.5 Wins (+130)

Love is Legit

He might have gotten off to a slow start, but there is no reason to think Love is not going to be a high-level starter in the league for the next decade. He is athletic and accurate while also being able to create big plays and points. He might not be an all-timer like his predecessor but the team can win with him. 

Plethora of Weapons

The Packers' top six receivers were all 24 and under last season. None have hit their peak and they offer Love a variety of size and speed. It is a complimentary group. Also, the Packers added running back Josh Jacobs this offseason. He is in his physical prime and already has an NFL rushing title to his credit. There was nothing wrong with Aaron Jones but Jacobs is younger and an upgrade. The modern NFL is about offense and the Packers are loaded. 

No Obvious Roster Holes

This team is not perfect, but you don't win road playoff games if you are littered with roster holes, even if you get to visit Dallas. This team is probably stronger on the offensive side of the ball, but they only gave up 20 ppg last season on defense, which was 10th. They could add a few young dynamic players to the defense but they are not desperate. 

Lots of Draft Picks to Use

Green Bay has its own pick at No. 25 plus picks acquired from the Jets (41) and Bills (91) in recent trades. That gives them five picks in the top 100 and 11 picks overall, so there are going to be lots of opportunities to add both volume and quality to their group in a couple of weeks. They have lots of ways they can go to improve. 

Second Place Schedule

Even though there is a ton of positive buzz about the Packers, remember they did not win the division last season, that was Detroit. Finishing second should mean an easier path and there is a strong likelihood that two teams in the division are going to have rookie quarterbacks (Chicago and Minnesota). A 4-0 record against that duo and a split with the Lions would get them off to a great start.