NFL worst to first bets: Who could make the division jump this season?

As for the Falcons, their price is built more out of how horrible the NFC South is projected to look. The Saints are the favorites simply because they have Derek Carr, but they have issues. The Buccaneers look likely to be one of the NFL's worst this season with serious quarterbacking issues. Then there's Carolina, who will be rolling with rookie Bryce Young on an offense devoid of quality playmakers.

That leaves Atlanta, with Desmond Ridder at quarterback and a few quality pieces on both ends. We're not too bullish on the Falcons here, but we can at least understand their placement on the board.

Our pick for which team pulls this off

Let's throw out the Cardinals and Commanders. Arizona feels more likely to go without a win than they do of sniffing the playoffs. Kyler Murray may not play for over half the year, and their team seriously lacks talent at every level. As for Washington, without a reliable quarterback, it's extremely hard to see them usurping either Philadelphia or Dallas to take the NFC East title.

For the purposes of this exercise, we'll also pass on Houston, who look to be building a promising core but seem likely to have bumps in Year One of the new regime. 

It's also extremely hard for us to bet against Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow, which suggests the Broncos and Browns are not teams we want to back this season.

That leaves just one option ...

Chicago Bears (+400 to win NFC North)

The Bears? The team that had the worst record in the NFL last season? Yes, exactly the one.

There's plenty of reason for optimism in Chicago this year. They think they've found their guy at quarterback in Justin Fields, who showed flashes of what he can do from the QB position last year. Fields makes plays with his legs, and incredible plays at that, and he began to show the foundations of a player who can make big-time plays with his arm.

The X-factor is the addition of WR DJ Moore, who joins what is suddenly an extremely exciting skill-position group on the Bears offense. Moore came over from Carolina in the trade that gave the Panthers the top overall pick, and the model is there for handing a young, developing QB an established star pass-catcher.

Buffalo got Diggs for Allen, and they've won three straight division titles and solidified themselves as one of the AFC's best. Philadelphia was able to land AJ Brown for Jalen Hurts last year, and Hurts took a massive leap en route to a Super Bowl berth for the Eagles.

An appearance in the Super Bowl may be far-fetched, but Chicago winning this division is not.

The Lions are the current favorites, and we can see why. They were close to a Wild Card last year and have retained most of their core and added exciting pieces in preparation for a strong 2023 season. Still, Jared Goff is average at best and can hold this team back.

Minnesota was one of the luckiest teams last year, going 13-4 despite a -3 point differential. They feel likely for a regression in the standings. And then there's Green Bay, who shipped out Rodgers and are dealing with the unknown in Jordan Love.

The NFC North is as wide-open as its been in over a decade, and Chicago has the pieces to make something happen here.

One of the benefits of finishing last in your division is a conceivably easier schedule the following year, which could stand to benefit the Bears. Chicago has winnable games on their schedule against the Buccaneers, Broncos, Commanders, Raiders, Browns, Cardinals, Panthers and Falcons. 

Don't sleep on Chicago this season.