Overreactions from Steelers Nation: Payton Wilson’s role in 2024

Welcome to my weekly edition of “Overreactions from Steelers Nation” a weekly column where I poke fun at fans, reporters, and so-called experts while trying to figure out if some of these hot takes are real – or just for attention.

In the aftermath of the 2024 NFL Draft everyone wants to justify their team’s choices with grades, steals and value picks. Steelers fans are no different, reveling in the hype that is now two solid looking draft from second-year general manager Omar Khan.

Among those selections made by Khan was in the third round. With the 98th overall pick, the Steelers drafted N.C. State linebacker Payton Wilson. Wilson was widely regarded as the top inside linebacker available in the draft by various analysts, however, a medical issue (Wilson is missing an ACL in one knee) saw him drop down to the bottom of the third round.

Pittsburgh was happy to snag Wilson with their fourth pick of the draft, earning praise in doing so. Wilson took college football by storm over the last two seasons, with 30 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks, 9 passes defensed, 4 interceptions and an absurd 220 tackles. His efforts earned him the Butkus Award as the nation’s best linebacker as well as the Chuck Bednarik Award as the best overall player in college football.

This is part of Wilson’s buzz, as everyone begins to peg his future in the NFL That’s where the overreactions come in, as some of these analysts, along with the fans, need to roll back their high expectations: at least for the upcoming 2024 season. Here’s why.

Draft Steal

I have no doubt that Wilson could be a draft steal. He could also be a draft bust too. After all, 31 other teams passed on taking him throughout 97 picks before he came off of the board.

That’s not to say those teams can’t be wrong. Trust me, I believe in Wilson’s talent and his injury history, while concerning, hasn’t been of concern during his reign of terror of the last two years.

Where the optimism turns to pessimism is that devaluing of “off ball” linebackers in the pros. The Steelers have seen firsthand how hard it has been to replace Ryan Shazier over the years.

Their own attempt at using a high draft pick on a linebacker, Devin Bush, backfired. But the Steelers are far from the only team to be burned at this position, with very few of the recent picks at this position playing up to potential.

Despite that, other player have been true finds in the middle rounds, such as 49ers LB Fred Warner. If Wilson stay upright, he could very well turn into a similar great find.

Other Linebackers

I heard a talking head in the media mention that Wilson will “thrive” next to free agent addition Patrick Queen. Another suggested Wilson could have 100 or more tackles as a rookie.

I think these statements are shortsighted, ignoring the other players on the field. Barring any injuries or setbacks, Wilson could be lucky to be the LB4 on Pittsburgh’s depth chart behind Queen and last year’s free agent signings, Elandon Roberts and Cole Holcomb. That doesn’t suggest he would be on the field enough to register 50 tackles, let alone 100.

Playing Time

Again, the above goes with Holcomb returning to 100% for the start of the season. Otherwise, Wilson might be in line for more playing time.

The Steelers deployed a three-man rotation at inside linebacker in 2023 with Holcomb, Roberts, and Kwon Alexander. Both Holcomb and Alexander wore the green dot as the defensive play caller: unfortunately, both were injured midway through the season.

This left Roberts in a tough spot, as he is more of a run stuffer than a sideline-to-sideline cover guy like Holcomb and Alexander. The inside linebackers were exposed further when Roberts was hurt and they had to rely on street free agents MyCal Walker and Myles Jack to fill in those roles.

That’s where Wilson comes in as a wise insurance policy. If Holcomb’s knee isn’t ready for Week 1, we very well could see Wilson jump right into action as a starter.

However, Queen is a three-down back who will never leave the field. So it’s more likely the healthy rotation uses Queen, Roberts, and Holcomb as the veterans, sometimes with Queen as the only true linebacker on the field in passing situations.

It should be noted that Roberts is only under contract through 2024, so the Wilson pick won’t be a waste. It could be used as more of a redshirt year in the NFL where he contributes in other ways.

Special Teams

Those contributions will be with the special teams unit, especially with the new kickoff rules going into effect. Wilson, who was clocked with a next-gen style top speed of 23 mph chasing down a play with N.C. State, will be flying around as a tackling machine on a special teams unit that lost several players, including Myles Boykin and James Pierre.

Other linebackers have earned their stripes with the Steelers by playing special teams over the years, including James Harrison and Vince Williams. Therefore it’s not illogical to think Wilson will be a force on special teams first before converting over to more snaps with defensive subpackages.