Originally written on Patriots Daily  |  Last updated 6/21/14

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 81% of simulations over the New York Jets. Tom Brady is averaging 264 passing yards and 1.8 TDs per simulation and Stevan Ridley is projected for 63 rushing yards and a 49% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 19% of simulations where New York Jets wins, Mark Sanchez averages 1.67 TD passes vs 0.74 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.13 TDs to 1.46 interceptions. Shonn Greene averages 71 rushing yards and 0.43 rushing TDs when New York Jets wins and 47 yards and 0.19 TDs in losses. New England Patriots has a 49% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 92% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NE -9.5 — Over/Under line is 48.5

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season. New York Jets ATS RECORD New England Patriots ATS RECORD ATS EDGE All Games 1-3-0 All Games 3-1-0 New England Patriots Road Games 0-2-0 Home Games 1-0-0 New England Patriots When Underdog 0-1-0 When Favored 3-1-0 New England Patriots Division Opp 0-0-0 Division Opp 1-1-0 No Edge Opp .500+ Record 0-0-0 Opp .500+ Record 0-0-0 No Edge LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season. New York Jets ATS RECORD New England Patriots ATS RECORD ATS EDGE All Games 11-8-0 All Games 11-6-0 New England Patriots Road Games 7-4-0 Home Games 5-4-0 New York Jets When Underdog 5-3-0 When Favored 8-6-0 New York Jets Division Opp 5-2-0 Division Opp 4-3-0 New York Jets Opp .500+ Record 3-3-0 Opp .500+ Record 5-2-0 New England Patriots OVER-UNDER TRENDS New York Jets O-U-P RECORD New England Patriots O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE All Totals (O-U-P) 3-1-0 All Totals (O-U-P) 3-1-0 OVER On Road 2-0-0 At Home 1-0-0 OVER All Totals Last Season 14-5-0 All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 OVER On Road Last Season 10-1-0 At Home Last Season 8-1-0 OVER

Also from Accuscore:

AFC PLAYOFF SHIFTS WEEK 4

Just a week after becoming a 50-50 bet for the playoffs, the Bills came crashing back to Earth losing a 14 point lead to the Bengals.  Buffalo dropped 13.8 percentage points in playoff probability this week but, at 3-1, are still exceeding expectations.  New England bounced back from last week’s upset at the hands of those Bills to beat the Raiders.  The Pats are still the most likely playoff team in the AFC at nearly 94 percent.  New York is on the opposite end of the spectrum from New England, getting beat up by the Ravens, and plagued by serious questions on offense.  The Jets dropped nearly 11 percent in playoff probability this week, and New York makes the playoffs in less than a third of simulations.  The Dolphins remain in the lead in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Baltimore exposed Mark Sanchez for the average quarterback our computers believe he is and, as a result, got a big win on Sunday night.  The Ravens are 3-1 now and overtook the Steelers as the favorites to win the AFC North at 50 percent.  The Steelers remain a solid favorite for a playoff spot at 82.1 percent, but must now deal with even more injuries to key players (James Harrison, Ben Roethliesberger, offensive line).  The Bengals continue to be feisty behind rookie Andy Dalton, but they are not real contenders just yet, making the playoffs 12.9 percent of the time.  The Browns were thought to be improved this season, but they are projected to finish last in the division after four weeks..

One of the most improved teams this season appears to be Tennessee.  Matt Hasselbeck has had a great rebound season thus far, leading the Titans to a 3-1 record.  Tennessee made the biggest jump this week, gaining 13.2 percentage points, and the Titans are up to 41.8 percent to make the postseason.  Houston got Arian Foster back, and he has helped boost an already terrific offense.  He will be needed as star wideout Andre Johnson suffered a serious injury and will be out an indefinite period of time.  The Texans, however, are still the favorites to win the South at 70.4 percent.  Jacksonville continues to sink as it transitions to rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert.  Indianapolis put up a fight on Monday night against Tampa, but the Colts remain winless on the season.

San Diego is not playing the best football, but the Chargers have a substantial lead in the projected AFC West standings.  The Chargers gained nine percentage points this week and are making the playoffs 89.1 percent of the time.  That is second best in the conference behind the Patriots.  Oakland was among the biggest gainers last week, but the Raiders made an equivalent drop this week, down to 34.5 percent.  Combined, Denver and Kansas City only win the division 1.3 percent of the time.  Both are serious contenders for the worst record in the NFL.

AFC WEEK 4 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE TEAM WK4 WK5 % DIFF WIN DIV TENNESSEE TITANS 28.6% 41.8% 13.2% 26.8% SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 80.1% 89.1% 9.0% 82.0% NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 87.0% 93.9% 6.9% 80.7% HOUSTON TEXANS 71.7% 78.6% 6.9% 70.4% CINCINNATI BENGALS 7.3% 12.9% 5.6% 2.5% BALTIMORE RAVENS 79.9% 83.3% 3.4% 50.0% CLEVELAND BROWNS 6.8% 7.2% 0.4% 1.6% KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% DENVER BRONCOS 1.8% 2.0% 0.2% 1.0% INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 2.6% 1.8% -0.8% 1.1% MIAMI DOLPHINS 2.3% 1.3% -1.0% 0.1% PITTSBURGH STEELERS 86.7% 82.1% -4.6% 45.9% JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 7.4% 2.6% -4.8% 1.8% OAKLAND RAIDERS 44.9% 34.5% -10.4% 16.7% NEW YORK JETS 43.4% 32.5% -10.9% 9.4% BUFFALO BILLS 49.6% 35.8% -13.8% 9.8%


GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Russell Wilson on contract: 'It's going to work out'

Kentucky seeks one kind of history, Coach K makes another

Matt Stafford's fiancee rips newspaper over article

Craig Sager's leukemia has returned

Frozen Four: Providence earns first bid since 1985

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Report: Discussions to bring NFL team to L.A. are progressing

Report: Chris Mullin expected to take St. John's job

Michigan State beats Louisville, punches Final Four ticket

Ex-NHL player viciously attacks opponent before game

Rick Barnes a possibility for Tennessee coaching job?

Report: NFL looking into Bill Belichick's camera ideas

Final Four preview: How can every team win?

WrestleMania 31 results: Rollins cashes in, Rousey appears

Five soon-to-be NBA free agents with a lot on the line

WATCH: Russell Wilson hits home run during Rangers BP

Hooked 'em: Why Texas had to fire Rick Barnes

Adam Morrison trolled fan who made JJ Redick comment

Jim Harbaugh finished fourth in student government election

WATCH: Notre Dame gets warm reception upon return home

WATCH: Kris Letang hospitalized after hit

Aaron Rodgers, sportswriter get into it over on-court access

Sam Dekker's hot shooting sends Wisconsin to Final Four

Jim McElwain complains about Florida roster

NFL News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Final Four preview: Can every team win?

Full WrestleMania 31 recap and results

Why Texas had to fire Rick Barnes

Craig Sager's leukemia has returned

Report: Chris Mullin to take St. John's job

Report: NFL looking into more cameras

CC Sabathia goes off about spring stats

John Fox: Cutler will have to earn job

Texas eyeing Shaka Smart, Gregg Marshall?

WATCH: Brady jumps off cliff in Costa Rica

WATCH: 2 Chainz beats Nique in HORSE

NFL owners chose cost over game integrity

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.