Originally posted on Patriots Daily  |  Last updated 10/5/11

PD has partnered with AccuScore this season to bring you data-driven content on the Patriots and their opponents throughout the year. AccuScore Advisor offers professional grade football betting systems that help build sustainable success while betting on NFL football.

The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 81% of simulations over the New York Jets. Tom Brady is averaging 264 passing yards and 1.8 TDs per simulation and Stevan Ridley is projected for 63 rushing yards and a 49% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 19% of simulations where New York Jets wins, Mark Sanchez averages 1.67 TD passes vs 0.74 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.13 TDs to 1.46 interceptions. Shonn Greene averages 71 rushing yards and 0.43 rushing TDs when New York Jets wins and 47 yards and 0.19 TDs in losses. New England Patriots has a 49% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 92% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NE -9.5 — Over/Under line is 48.5

‘CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season. New York Jets ATS RECORD New England Patriots ATS RECORD ATS EDGE All Games 1-3-0 All Games 3-1-0 New England Patriots Road Games 0-2-0 Home Games 1-0-0 New England Patriots When Underdog 0-1-0 When Favored 3-1-0 New England Patriots Division Opp 0-0-0 Division Opp 1-1-0 No Edge Opp .500+ Record 0-0-0 Opp .500+ Record 0-0-0 No Edge LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season. New York Jets ATS RECORD New England Patriots ATS RECORD ATS EDGE All Games 11-8-0 All Games 11-6-0 New England Patriots Road Games 7-4-0 Home Games 5-4-0 New York Jets When Underdog 5-3-0 When Favored 8-6-0 New York Jets Division Opp 5-2-0 Division Opp 4-3-0 New York Jets Opp .500+ Record 3-3-0 Opp .500+ Record 5-2-0 New England Patriots OVER-UNDER TRENDS New York Jets O-U-P RECORD New England Patriots O-U-P RECORD O-U EDGE All Totals (O-U-P) 3-1-0 All Totals (O-U-P) 3-1-0 OVER On Road 2-0-0 At Home 1-0-0 OVER All Totals Last Season 14-5-0 All Totals Last Season 14-3-0 OVER On Road Last Season 10-1-0 At Home Last Season 8-1-0 OVER

Also from Accuscore:

AFC PLAYOFF SHIFTS WEEK 4

Just a week after becoming a 50-50 bet for the playoffs, the Bills came crashing back to Earth losing a 14 point lead to the Bengals.  Buffalo dropped 13.8 percentage points in playoff probability this week but, at 3-1, are still exceeding expectations.  New England bounced back from last week’s upset at the hands of those Bills to beat the Raiders.  The Pats are still the most likely playoff team in the AFC at nearly 94 percent.  New York is on the opposite end of the spectrum from New England, getting beat up by the Ravens, and plagued by serious questions on offense.  The Jets dropped nearly 11 percent in playoff probability this week, and New York makes the playoffs in less than a third of simulations.  The Dolphins remain in the lead in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Baltimore exposed Mark Sanchez for the average quarterback our computers believe he is and, as a result, got a big win on Sunday night.  The Ravens are 3-1 now and overtook the Steelers as the favorites to win the AFC North at 50 percent.  The Steelers remain a solid favorite for a playoff spot at 82.1 percent, but must now deal with even more injuries to key players (James Harrison, Ben Roethliesberger, offensive line).  The Bengals continue to be feisty behind rookie Andy Dalton, but they are not real contenders just yet, making the playoffs 12.9 percent of the time.  The Browns were thought to be improved this season, but they are projected to finish last in the division after four weeks..

One of the most improved teams this season appears to be Tennessee.  Matt Hasselbeck has had a great rebound season thus far, leading the Titans to a 3-1 record.  Tennessee made the biggest jump this week, gaining 13.2 percentage points, and the Titans are up to 41.8 percent to make the postseason.  Houston got Arian Foster back, and he has helped boost an already terrific offense.  He will be needed as star wideout Andre Johnson suffered a serious injury and will be out an indefinite period of time.  The Texans, however, are still the favorites to win the South at 70.4 percent.  Jacksonville continues to sink as it transitions to rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert.  Indianapolis put up a fight on Monday night against Tampa, but the Colts remain winless on the season.

San Diego is not playing the best football, but the Chargers have a substantial lead in the projected AFC West standings.  The Chargers gained nine percentage points this week and are making the playoffs 89.1 percent of the time.  That is second best in the conference behind the Patriots.  Oakland was among the biggest gainers last week, but the Raiders made an equivalent drop this week, down to 34.5 percent.  Combined, Denver and Kansas City only win the division 1.3 percent of the time.  Both are serious contenders for the worst record in the NFL.

AFC WEEK 4 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE TEAM WK4 WK5 % DIFF WIN DIV TENNESSEE TITANS 28.6% 41.8% 13.2% 26.8% SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 80.1% 89.1% 9.0% 82.0% NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 87.0% 93.9% 6.9% 80.7% HOUSTON TEXANS 71.7% 78.6% 6.9% 70.4% CINCINNATI BENGALS 7.3% 12.9% 5.6% 2.5% BALTIMORE RAVENS 79.9% 83.3% 3.4% 50.0% CLEVELAND BROWNS 6.8% 7.2% 0.4% 1.6% KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% DENVER BRONCOS 1.8% 2.0% 0.2% 1.0% INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 2.6% 1.8% -0.8% 1.1% MIAMI DOLPHINS 2.3% 1.3% -1.0% 0.1% PITTSBURGH STEELERS 86.7% 82.1% -4.6% 45.9% JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 7.4% 2.6% -4.8% 1.8% OAKLAND RAIDERS 44.9% 34.5% -10.4% 16.7% NEW YORK JETS 43.4% 32.5% -10.9% 9.4% BUFFALO BILLS 49.6% 35.8% -13.8% 9.8%


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