Originally written on Phin Nation  |  Last updated 11/14/14

With the NFL draft 16 days away and free agency dying down it is time for my first 7-round mock. In order to properly understand the 12th overall pick I make you must see the way I see the first 11 picks playing out:The way I see the first 11 picks of the 2013 NFL draft: 1) Kansas City selects OT Luke Joeckel 2) Jacksonville selects DE Dion Jordan 3) Oakland selects DT Sharrif Floyd 4) Philadelphia selects OT Eric Fisher 5) Detroit selects CB Dee Miliner 6) Cleavland selects WR Tavon Austin 7) Arizona selects QB Geno Smith 8) Buffalo selects QB Matt Barkley 9) Jets select WR Cordarrelle Patterson 10) Tennessee selects OT Lane Johnson 11) San Diego selects DT Star Lotulelei Photo Courtesy of Dolphins.com 1) Xavier Rhodes CB, Florida State Miami is in prime position to take BPA (best pick available). If the draft plays out this way the only true options are OG Chance Warmack, TE Tyler Eifert, DE Zeke Ansah, and CB Xavier Rhodes.  Now I understand Rhodes will not be the sexy pick for the following reasons; Rhodes is Sean Smith 2.0, Rhodes can’t tackle, Rhodes has durability issues, ect.  Xavier Rhodes is not a can’t miss prospect he does have flaws, but he also has loads of potential. Many scouts criticisms of Rhodes are far overblown. Rhodes is a converted 4-star wide receiver, who is a Miami native. He is not simply a press-man corner. In fact, according to my friend @NU_Gap (article found here http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/18/cbs-1/) Rhodes played press only 20.69% of the time. In this study, corner prospects Banks, Milliner, and Rhodes, Rhodes was clearly the most versatile of the three. Rhodes lines up all over the field, unlike the other corners. He also had the lowest completion rate when targeted of all three prospects. The film show a CB that has the size and skills to be a probowl caliber cover in the NFL. Don’t be sour about Sean Smith, Rhodes is NOT Sean Smith. Rhodes is much more refined CB that happens to have size. Coyle is a CB magician. If given this physical prospect the sky is the limit of Xavier Rhodes. Grimes 1-yr deal does not necessarily make Miami better in the immediate future, but the thought of Grimes and Rhodes is much more impressive starting duo than D.Patterson and Nolan Carroll. Rhodes provides stability and potential in a depleted secondary. Miami needs playmakers, they paid to have them on offense; now they need them in the secondary. 2A) Justin Pugh OL, Syracuse Justin Pugh  is a  strong student, and very active in community service which is exactly what Philbin looks for in his players. On the field he was named a team captain and was name  All-Big East first-team selection as an OT.  Pugh will fall into the second round  due to his ‘alligator arms.’ It is for this very reason draft guru Mel Kiper listed him as his number one rated center. Obviously, the Dolphins do not need an offensive center with Mike Pouncey on the roster. However, Pugh’s quick feet, lateral agility, 2nd level blocking, balance, and work ethic will allow him to play any interior position in a zone blocking scheme. There is nothing I have seen on tape that tells me Pugh cannot be an effective RT in the NFL. Short arms are one of those combine numbers that are often over-stated. Pugh will be more than a solid starter in this league at RT or OG, either of which will improve Miami’s mediocre offensive line. 2B) Zach Ertz TE, Stanford Breathe easy now my offense lovers. Zach Ertz gives Tannehill a  big 6’5 Jason Whitten-type threat that can bust the seam at any moment. Ertz posses strength and quickness that help him in-and-out of his breaks. He is one the smoothest route runners I have seen at the TE position. Ertz was buried on the depth chart with Coby Fleener headlining the group. But, when Ertz was given the opportunity he more than doubled Fleener’s production. He is one of the best I have ever seen at selling his routes and finding the ‘soft-spots’ in the defense. Ertz is a slightly underrated blocker who tends to always be in the right-position, but struggles in sustaining the blocks. Ertz will fall due to untimely drops, inconsistent blocking and perhaps most of all his sub-par YAC ability. The dolphins currently lack a tall red-zone threat. Double-tight formations with Egnew and Ertz could solve that problem (If Egnew develops). 3A) David Amerson FS/CB, North Carolina State Everybody loves to hate David Amerson. Admittedly Amerson consistently gets burned on double-moves, Many people question his ability to turn his hips, often making him appear slower than his 4.44 speed would indicate. Amerson’s struggles in coverage, but had 13 interceptions in 2011. Amerson is a player that attacks the ball in the air as if he is Calvin Johnson. Amerson is not a technician. He has flaws in his game, but 13 interceptions is no fluke. Amerson has the size, speed, and hands to be a top-tier aggressive ball-hawking free safety. Amerson must be more willing to play the ball carrier and work on his tackling. However, Amerson has at least a year to master these skills with the resigning of free safety Chris Clemons. This could be the perfect time to upgrade a position that Miami has struggled with since Brock Marion left South Florida. 3B) Brennan Williams OT, North Carolina With Justin Pugh’s offensive versatility it may be wise to invest another pick in the O-line.I waited until the 3rd round because Nate Garner & John Jerry have both proven successful when called-up. The Dolphins have invested several years and a roster spot developing former Maryland lacrosse player Will Yeatman. These options at RT lead to the selection of Brennan Williams. Brennan Williams has the skills be an all-pro at the RT position. Brennan Williams comes from a NFL pedigree, his dad a former NFL DT of the Patriots. Brennan is a fantastic athlete with excellent flexibility and agility. Williams is a run blocking RT. Williams needs to work on setting his anchor and maintaining his base in pass protection. Too often he is caught lunging on the quicker pass-rushers he faced. However, as a third round pick I believe he could provide the Dolphins with a day-one starter. 4) Quanteras Smith DE, Western Kentucky Yes, I have waited until the 4th round to select a DE. With Wake, Odrick, Vernon I do not see the immediate need. Quanteras Smith would have been a top 20 pick had he not sustained a torn ACL. Smith averaged 1.5 sacks PER GAME throughout his senior year (10 games, cut short by ACL tear) at Western Kentucky.He is not a one trick pony. Smith has both inside and outside pass rush ability. It is likely that his first NFL season will be red-shirted, but Smith’s size and speed and ability to play both LDE & RDE will make him a valuable part of the Dolphins future. Who better than Cam Wake to help this player become NFL pass rusher. 5A) Mark Harrison WR, Rutgers For those who have been following my twitter, I have eluded to me falling in-love with a WR prospect. Meet Mark Harrison.  Harrison reminds me of a former Dolphins WR that was recently traded to the Bears. A big, physical body that would have time to develop as the teams 5th WR. Harrison is a physical specimen that reminds me a little of Tommy Streeter last year. Harrison is a 6’3 230 lb prospect that runs a 4.4 forty and posses elite  jumping ability. I stated earlier this group on offense lacks height. Harrison provides a jump-ball player until he develops into a bigger role player. Harrison is said to have consistently under preformed but when he flashes, its the brightest flash you have ever seen.  Harrison has 1st round measurable, but suffered from sub-par QB play. Harrison could become Miami’s James Jones. 5B) Corey Broomfield, CB Mississippi State Broomfield is the overlooked Mississppi State CB. Broomfield succeeded when covering the slot and is a superb zone cornerback. With pretty heavy contracts on the back half of Miami’s CB depth chart, a late round flier on an athlete that fits Miami’s system may be the best course of action. Broomfield may be left out of the draft discussion because he is simply forgotten behind CB Slay and Banks. However, when watching film Broomfield was often the best and most consistent CB on the field. 7A) Dennis Johnson RB, Arkansas Miami lacks a big, bruising RB. Although the team believes Daniel Thomas may finally get healthy and be the RB we saw run over Houston. A late round flier on Arkansas back-up RB. Knile Davis rightly recieves the majority of the publicity, however, Johnson stepped in during Knile’s injury, and did not look back. Johnson is a 5’9 215 lb bowling ball, with the ability to run threw bad tackles and is one of the better pass protecting backs in the draft. Johnson’s major knock is ball security which must be fixed if he wants to succeed in the NFL. 7B) Dustin Hopkins K, Florida State Hopkins is the best kicker in this upcoming draft. Dan Carpenter cannot feel comfortable right now with a substantial pay raise on the horizon, following a mediocre season, which was cut short by a season ending injury. The most logical course of action is to bring in competition for Carpenter. A 7th round flier on Hopkins may be the best way to go, low risk/high reward type pick. You all demanded it so I delivered. Hope you all enjoy the mock. As always follow me on twitter @Phinfanalyst for your up-to-date Dolphin’s talk.   Austin

2 Comments:
  • I only count 10 selections.
    Did you forget the 6th round?
  • They dont have a 6th round pick this year
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