Last week featured some dreadful picks on my end. But as the first publicized picks of the season, I’m feeling giddy with confidence. Like Philip Rivers in a preseason game. Or Aaron Rodgers in any game. Let’s get to the picks!
ATLANTA (-7) at INDIANAPOLIS
The Colts may be halfway to a spectacularly imperfect season, but Falcons go from week-to-week without ever really giving observers any confidence. About the only thing you can expect is an interception from Matt Ryan and a 100-yard game for Michael Turner. Who am I kidding? Make that a 200-yard game. The Colts may have shown some brief flashes of mediocrity, but the defense doesn’t stack up against a downhill runner like Turner. Pick: Falcons.
TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS (-8)
I’m torn. On the one hand, Drew Brees is a spectacular quarterback on an offense most defenses find unstoppable. On the other, Tampa Bay beat New Orleans three weeks ago. And one week after the Bayou Crew pistol-whipped the Colts, 62-7, they traveled to St. Louis where the Rams scored four points more than they had in the previous four games and beat them handily. Gah! Good thing the game in New Orleans, where the Saints are 3-0, tallying victories by 17, 7 and 55. Pick: Saints.
CLEVELAND at HOUSTON (-11)
11 points seems like a steep spread, but think about this: Cleveland’s three wins were against teams whose aggregate win percentage is .087 (2-21). And the average margin of victory in those wins was four points. In losses, Cleveland has been helpless, losing by 10, 18, 7 and 10. In other words, this is a really bad Cleveland Browns team. Houston has been shaky at times, but this won’t be one of those games. Pick: Texans.
NEW YORK JETS at BUFFALO (-2)
Riddle: how can an offense ranked 29th in yards also rank 11th in points scored? Answer: it’s riding the coattails of a very good defense (ranked 8th in yards). Unfortunately, the lack of positive yardage on offense is costing the defense, which ranks 18th in points allowed. That’s how important field position is. Expect Buffalo to take advantage of good field position with its third-ranked scoring offense. Pick: Bills.
MIAMI at KANSAS CITY (-4)
Let’s get this straight: Miami, 0-8, is on the road, facing a Chiefs team that has turned its season around and won four in a row. Does no one recognize this? Or are we to assume that four points is too much to ask from a Kansas City team that depends on its running game to carry the offense? My guess is the public still hasn’t come around to the Chiefs being a legitimate contender in the AFC West after the dreadful Jamaal Charles-less start to the season. Whatever the reason(s), in my book and on paper this is the safest pick of the week. Pick: Chiefs.
SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) at WASHINGTON
One week removed from being beaten down by Buffalo, 23-0, the Redskins limp back to Washington on a three game skid to face the one-loss 49ers. Oddly, San Francisco, with the NFL’s 6th ranked offense, having won 5-of-6 by more than 3.5 points, are just three-and-a-half point favorites. I have a hard time accepting all this talk of Alex Smith now playing like the “quarterback they drafted” (the offense is 31st in passing yards), Frank Gore is on a tear. Forget what I said in the Kansas City-Miami pick – this is the easiest pick of the week. Pick: 49ers.
SEATTLE at DALLAS (-11.5)
Both Seattle and Dallas are in do-or-die mode, though the 2-5 Seahawks might already feel a little dead in the water. Still, Pete Carroll is a players’ coach and he can inspire that defense. Unfortunately, Seattle has nothing to speak of on offense that would make me believe they have a prayer in this one. Unless Romo tosses three freebies to the ‘Hawks, expect Dallas to pull ahead early and keep Seattle from putting double digits on the board. Pick: Cowboys.
IF YOUR EYEBALLS SURVIVED THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON …
DENVER at OAKLAND (-8)
Two weeks ago I would have told you, Oakland (-21) might not be enough of a spread. Tim Tebow has shown flashes of both wow-I-can’t-believe-he-just-did-that! and what-in-the-hell-did-he-just-do? This is his third start of the season — and maybe his make-or-break in the eyes of John Fox. But let’s look at Oakland’s quarterback situation: Carson Palmer, who by his own admission knew just 10 percent of the playbook one week ago, threw three interceptions and looked like a quarterback who spent the last eleven months of his life not throwing a football. That said, Darren McFadden will run roughshod on the Broncos front seven … if he plays. As of this writing, he still hasn’t participated in practice. Expect Oakland to win — but some last-five-minute garbage points will pull Denver within the spread. Pick: Broncos.
ST LOUIS at ARIZONA (-2)
This matchup is giving me all sorts of fits. The Rams offense looked like D-III JV scrimmaging USC until last week, when from out of freakin’ nowhere the team went off for 31 against the stunned Saints. The difference: Brandon Lloyd, who after two games in St. Louis has 12 receptions and has injected the offense with a life once thought lost. On the other side, Arizona should have beaten Baltimore last week after leading 27-3 at one point (they lost, 30-27). And the offense has scored more than 16 points more than once this season, unlike their traveling foes this week. I mean, who would actually wager on a pair of 1-6 teams featuring A.J. Feeley and Kevin Kolb? Yech. Pick: Cardinals.
NEW YORK GIANTS at NEW ENGLAND (-9)
Can the Patriots really be considered nine point favorites this week? I’ll give Tom Brady a pass for facing a brutal Pittsburgh defense last week, and I’m the first to admit Eli Manning is as shaky as any quarterback in the NFL. But this New England defense is bad. I would fully expect Tim Tebow to hit the 300 yards milestone against it (Chad Henne passed for 416 week one). New England will always be facing shootouts this season. But against a good quarterback like Manning, they won’t win easily. Pick: Giants.
GREEN BAY (-5.5) at SAN DIEGO
The Packers have to lose one game this season, right? Well … maybe not this week. Aaron Rodgers and the offense are fresh off a bye week, facing an imploding Chargers team that has lost two in a row. Those games — against the Jets and Chiefs — were lost by six and three, but those offenses didn’t feature Aaron Rodgers. Or Greg Jennings. Or Donald Driver. Or Jermichael Finley. Or … you get the idea. Expect two more picks for Rivers and another loss for the Chargers. Pick: Green Bay.
‘CAUSE YOU’VE BEEN WAITING ALL DAY …
BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH (-3)
Holy bejeezus, this match up is interesting. The Steelers, on a four game win streak, are out for revenge against the same Ravens that opened the season by embarrassing Pittsburgh in a 35-7 rout. In the visiting locker room is a team on the verge of a major schism between the offense and defense, unless Ray Rice and Joe Flacco can turn up the heat against a seething Steel Curtain. Baltimore’s defense will put up a valiant effort, but Pittsburgh is out for blood. Pick: Steelers.
ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?
CHICAGO at PHILADELPHIA (-7.5)
I’ve been in Chicago’s corner all season. Jay Cutler has been getting marauded on offense — don’t question his toughness. But Philadelphia is starting to find its groove and getting its season back on track. They’re still in can’t-afford-to-lose mode as part of a three-way tie for second place in the NFC East with a 3-4 record. The key to the game for Philadelphia will be stopping Matt Forte; if they can do that, they’ll win and cover. But I don’t count on it. Pick: Chicago.
Disagree? Think I’m as good at picking spreads as Kim Kardashian is at picking husbands? Give me your thoughts in the comments section!
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Original Story:
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