Recent history suggests the Bears might have to wait for No. 1 overall pick to pay off

Everyone knows the NFL Draft can be a crapshoot, especially when it comes to the volatility of quarterbacks picked high. The Chicago Bears are only a few weeks away from investing one of those picks in a signal-caller, so what does recent history tell us about QBs chosen No. 1 overall? 

Over the last 10 years, seven quarterbacks have gone first overall, with most showing that the Bears will likely have to wait a while to see a payoff – if they see one at all. 

From that list, only Joe Burrow (29-22-1) and Jared Goff (66-50-1) have winning records as starters. 

The Cincinnati Bengals star is the class of this list, having reached the Super Bowl in his second year (2021) while showing MVP-caliber skills over only four seasons in the NFL. However, Burrow's checkered injury history is a growing concern. 

Then, there's Goff, who had several standout seasons with the Los Angeles Rams, even reaching a Super Bowl in 2018. But, two lackluster seasons later, the Rams traded him to the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford, who in year one did what Goff couldn't – bring the Lombardi to L.A. Now, eight seasons into his career, Goff is seemingly hitting his stride with the Detroit Lions. 

Goff's journey isn't uncommon for No. 1 overall picks. He is one of three quarterbacks on the list who needed a change of scenery to find success.   

Baker Mayfield needed four stops. After stumbling with the Cleveland Browns, Carolina Panthers and Rams, he has finally found a home with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers six seasons after going first overall in 2018. Meanwhile, Jameis Winston has played for two teams, the New Orleans Saints and Buccaneers, and recently signed with a third, the Browns. Unlike Goff and Mayfield, though, he will be the backup to Deshaun Watson in Cleveland. 

Of the remaining bunch, Trevor Lawrence (with the Jacksonville Jaguars) and Kyler Murray (of the Arizona Cardinals), are entering pivotal seasons. Both have flashed potential, but results are lacking, fair or not. 

Lawrence is coming off back-to-back 4,000-yard passing seasons, but the pressure is on after going 20-30 as the starter with only one playoff appearance in three seasons. Likewise, Murray is under similar strain, coming off two injury-shortened seasons that saw him go 6-13 in 19 starts, prompting some to suggest that the franchise should trade the 2019 top pick. 

Finally, there is Bryce Young, the 2023 selection by the Carolina Panthers. The jury may still be out on Young, but the former Heisman Trophy winner struggled in year one, going 2-14 while finishing 28th in passing touchdowns and 20th in passing yards. 

The seven quarterbacks in question are a combined 219-244-3 with nine Pro Bowls and zero first-team All-Pro nods. Meanwhile, in the postseason, they have gone 12-10, with nine of those wins coming from Burrow and Goff. 

Teams picking first overall are usually doing so for a reason – they're bad. In the Bears' case, a shrewd trade helped them land the pick, but a year after passing on a QB, they're in a similar spot this time around following a 7-10 campaign. 

This year's crop, which includes consensus top pick USC star Caleb Williams, has analysts going gah-gah. However, when crafting expectations, it's important to note that all the names listed above had similar steam behind them.