Seattle Seahawks (6-4) at Miami Dolphins (4-6)
As I mentioned in the Tennessee/Jacksonville write up, one situation I love betting on is road favorites after a bye. It’s strong for divisional matchups, as teams are 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye since 2002, but that trend is still 22-12 ATS for non-divisional matchups and 44-15 ATS overall, so it’s not like it’s not a huge factor in this game.
Whenever, I use that trend, I always check to make sure the team does deserve to be road favorites. Betting road favorites off a bye is great, but if you’re betting on a team that doesn’t deserve to be road favorites, it’s not so good. In order to do this, I use the two methods of computing line value. The rate of sustaining drives differential method says this line should be Seattle -2 and the yards per play differential method says this line should be Seattle -1.5. We’re getting a little bit of line value with the Dolphins +3, especially considering this line shifted 3 whole...
Found November 23, 2012 on
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