Seahawks: By the Bye
The Seahawks have some clockwork to do this week. Below is featured each bye week from the first bye week in Week 4, through (yet to be elapsed) Week 11 and their outcomes. I was interested in seeing how the league, in general, has fared after a bye week. Of course, it stands to reason that superb teams should win after a bye. With one exception, the Chargers’ loss to the Browns following their Week 7 bye, all other projected outcomes had been uninfluenced by the bye.
Breakdown of the bye list. On one line, I listed the NFL week # and the teams whose bye week it was. I also color coded the normal projection, green font for expected win, red for expected loss. Then I followed that line with the outcomes of the games those (bye week) teams played in the subsequent week. Using the green/red font coding, I presented the actual outcomes of those games. Excuse the redundancies. In a few instances, just to represent the perspective of each team after their bye, I repeated the outcome of their post-bye week games with them listed first, then their opponent. This redundancy occurs in the instances where two teams met after they each came off a bye, such as the Eagles and Falcons meeting in Week 8 after both had Week 7 byes. The Bills and Texans faced each other in Week 9 after each rested in Week 8. The weirdest outcome between two teams meeting after each other’s bye week was the Rams at 49ers game, which ended in a tie after 5 full 15 minute quarters. So where some think a bye is helpful to rest up players, in this case the game after took more out of them, 25% more.
Week 4 byes: Colts, Steelers
Week 5 outcomes: Colts beat Packers 30 – 27, Steelers beat Eagles 16 – 14
Week 5 byes: Cowboys, Lions, Raiders, Buccaneers
Week 6 outcomes: Cowboys lost to Ravens 29 – 31, Lions beat Eagles 26 – 23, Raiders lost to Falcons 20 – 23, Buccaneers beat Chiefs 38 – 10
Week 6 byes: Panthers, Bears, Jaguars, Saints
Week 7 outcomes: Panthers lost to Cowboys 14 – 19, Bears beat Lions 13 – 7, Jaguars lost to Raiders 23 – 26, Saints beat Buccaneers 35 – 28
Week 7 byes: Falcons, Broncos, Chiefs, Dolphins, Eagles, Chargers
Week 8 outcomes: Falcons beat Eagles 30 – 17, Broncos beat Saints 34 – 14, Chiefs lost to Raiders 16 – 26, Dolphins beat Jets 30 – 9, Eagles lost to Falcons 17 – 30, Chargers lost to Browns 6 – 7
Week 8 byes: Ravens, Bills, Bengals, Texans
Week 9 outcomes: Ravens beat Browns 25 – 15, Bills lost to Texans 9 – 21, Bengals lost to Broncos 23 – 31, Texans beat Bills 21 – 9
Week 9 byes: Patriots, Jets, 49ers, Rams
Week 10 outcomes: Patriots beat Bills 37 – 31, Jets lost to Seahawks 7 – 28, 49ers tied Rams 24 – 24, Rams tied 49ers 24 – 24
Below are the Week 10 bye week teams and their Week 11 games along with my projected outcomes, followed by the Week 11 bye week teams and their Week 12 games and projections.
Week 10 byes: Cardinals, Browns, Packers, Redskins
Week 11 matches for teams who were on a bye in Week 10 with:
Cardinals at Falcons
Browns at Cow
Packers at Lions
Eagles at Redskins
Of 26 games after a bye week, the record for teams after their bye week is: 14 – 10 – 2. Oddly enough, both the 49ers and Rams were coming of bye weeks when they tied each other. Based on the probability of a win after a bye week, I expect slightly greater than 2, yet less than 3 teams will win in Week 11, coming off Week 10 byes, their “get back to work” week. So who’ll be the probable victors in this scenario? Well, I’ll take the 2 divisional games, Packers to beat Lions and Redskins to beat Eagles and in the slight probability of more than 2 subsequent-to-bye-week teams winning, I’m going to take the more likely upset of the Browns beating the Cowboys. That’s more likely than Cardinals over Falcons.
Week 11 byes: Vikings, Giants, Seahawks, Titans
What does this mean for the Seahawks as they prepare to play in Miami after Seattle’s Week 11 bye?
Let’s put this in the same context as the previous bye week breakdowns first.
Week 12 matches for teams who were on a bye in Week 11:
Vikings at Bears
Packers at Giants
Seahawks at Dolphins
Titans at Jaguars
The Bears may have lost Jay Cutler for some time due to a concussion suffered in the Week 10′s Sunday Night Football. Still I like them in this game against the Vikings. When the Packers faced a team coming off a bye (Colts), they’ve lost. I favor the Giants in this game. The Seahawks have already done well against the AFC East. I expect them to win. The Titans should play well against the Jaguars.
The last time the Seahawks played Miami, 4 years ago, at Miami
At the time, the Seahawks were in dire straits. They were 2 – 7 visiting a 5 – 4 Dolphins squad. They played in Week 10 of the 2008 season. The Seahawks employed Seneca Wallace at quarterback and lost by 2 points. The Dolphins play another future foe of the Seahawks (Bills) during Seattle’s bye week on Thursday Night Football in prime time. So I expect many Seattle Sports Nuts will have scouted this game before their team flies to South Florida. I also expect to learn more about Miami’s run defense which was suspect in their loss to the Titans this week. This was a Titans’ “drubbing” of the Dolphins in Miami!
Might I suggest the Seahawks prepare for what equates to a 10am (local Seattle time) start when visiting Miami? Both 10am starts this season were on the road against the Rams and Lions. The one thing Seattle has going for them in terms of time and “setting” (natural or artificial), is the play well outdoors. However, they shouldn’t avoid the fact that their game in Miami is an early one.
What is a circadian rhythm?
How does one counter or cooperate with the effects of circadian rhythm and the early start time? Miami players will be on Eastern time already when they play the 1pm (Miami-time) game. Does this mean the Seahawks might get a slower start in the game than Miami? We’ll see.
Circadian rhythms may not have anything to do with Seattle’s 2 road losses whose start times were 10am Seattle-time. To date, they’ve , but they haven’t yet won that early game. Bear in mind, they fly to Chicago after the Miami game and, once again, start at 10am Seattle-time.
The Seahawks in 2012 when playing into the hands of an indiscriminate mother nature thru Week 10.
Outdoor record: 6 -1
Away outdoor record: 1 – 1
10am Seattle-time start: 0 – 2
The Seahawks’ next two games are away, outdoors and start at 10am Seattle-time. There is a chance, though, in Week 13, the NFL may choose to flex schedule the Seahawks’ game in Chicago. Flex scheduling usually looks to coordinate a Sunday Night Football game that has great ratings potential based on playoff implications. So if you’re concerned about the Seahawks’ winless 10am (Seattle-time) starts, there may be another angle to consider, their away outdoor record.
Well that was fun.
On Saturday night, in order to wake in plenty of time to have a good pre-game workout and a little breakfast before the Seahawks attempt to achieve Win #7, I’m self-imposing a 9pm curfew and 10pm “lights-out” rule…Seattle-time of course.
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