Should Packers Re-Sign AJ Dillon in NFL Free Agency?

While all signs point to the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Jones finding a way to stay together for an eighth season, his sidekick for the last four years, AJ Dillon, faces a murky future.

In the first part of a series on Green Bay’s 12 unrestricted free agents, here is the outlook for Dillon.

Here’s Why Packers Should Retain AJ Dillon

No, Dillon was unable to pick up the slack through Jones’ extended absences. And, no, Dillon wasn’t Derrick Henry 2.0. But he was a valuable role player the last three seasons.

Three things weigh in Dillon’s favor.

One, he’s tougher than a $2 steak. While he missed time with COVID as a rookie in 2020, he played in all 17 games in 2021, all 17 games in 2022 and the first 13 games of 2023. All told, he played in 51 consecutive regular-season games until he missed one game with a broken thumb. He missed Week 18 and the two playoff games following a stinger.

Two, he’s successful. Don’t pardon the pun. Pro Football Reference has a stat called “Success Rate.” It matches Green Bay’s win/loss grading system. Any run that gains 40 percent of the yards on first down (a 4-yard run on first-and-10), more than half the remaining yards on second down and all the remaining yards on third or fourth down is a success. From 2021 through 2023, 50 running backs had at least 275 carries. Dillon’s success rate of 55.9 percent was No. 1 in the NFL. Even in a disappointing 2023, his 50.0 percent success rate ranked 10th out of 41 running backs with at least 110 carries.

Three, he’s a do-it-all back. Dillon not only can get the tough yards, he can catch (34-of-37 targets in 2021 and 22-of-28 targets in 2023) and protect. Keeping Dillon would give the Packers a reliable complementary back and allow them to use their premium draft picks at other positions.

Said coach Matt LaFleur at the end of the season: “AJ’s been a great member of our team. You’ve got to have multiple backs in this league. You have to. It’s just the pounding these guys take. I think you could really see his value every year towards the end of the season. Shoot, I’d love to have him back here.”

Here’s Why Packers Should Let AJ Dillon Go

Coach Matt LaFleur was the offensive coordinator of the Titans in 2018. That was Henry’s first 1,000-yard season. It wasn’t hard to make comparisons between Henry (6-foot-3, 247 pounds; 4.54 in the 40 40; 8.78 Relative Athletic Score) and Dillon (6-foot, 247; 4.53 in the 40; 9.18 RAS).

Playing behind Jones and Jamaal Williams in 2020, Dillon averaged 5.3 yards per carry. In his first big opportunity, he carried 21 times for 124 yards and two touchdowns against the Titans, of all teams. However, that was the only 100-yard game of his career.

In 2021, he rushed for 803 yards, averaged 4.3 yards per carry, was No. 1 with a 61.0 percent success rate and had 1,116 yards from scrimmage. In 2022, he rushed for 770 yards with a 4.1 average, his success rate was a fifth-ranked 56.5 percent, and he had 976 total yards. In 2023, he rushed for 613 yards with a woeful 3.4 average, his success rate fell further to 50.0 percent, and he tallied 836 total yards.

Dillon is a physical specimen. He’d hardly look out of place in WWE. And yet, for all that speed and power, he almost never got into the open field, punished the safety and broke away from the pack. In 2023, 49 running backs had at least 100 carries. Dillon was 37th with 2.69 yards after contact, according to Pro Football Focus, and 47th with a missed-tackle rate of 6.7 percent, according to Sports Info Solutions.

The Verdict

As was the case for all their top free agents, the Packers met with Dillon’s representation at the Scouting Combine. As is typically the case for early draft picks who are in the prime of their careers, Dillon will be a man in demand if he hits free agency.

Talk at the Combine was the Dallas Cowboys might be among the most interested teams. Their top back, Tony Pollard, is headed to free agency. So, the Cowboys might be looking for either a new lead back or a powerful counterpuncher to the explosive Pollard. Imagine if Dillon had the year of his life under coach Mike McCarthy after McCarthy was criticized for underusing Jones.

The best-case scenario for the Packers is Dillon goes unsigned through the early waves of free agency and he’s available after the draft, just in case Green Bay is unable to land one of its targeted runners.