Originally written on Shutdown Corner  |  Last updated 11/23/11
  Green Bay Packers (10-0) at Detroit Lions (7-3) The Lions will need to get off to a fast start to keep up with the Packers, and that includes the need to get things going on first down. Fortunately, they have a serious advantage in that department — they rank fifth in the NFL in Offensive DVOA (Football Outsiders' per-play efficiency metric) on first down, while the Packers' defense ranks 28th in first-down defensive DVOA. Detroit's defense is most vulnerable on second-and-short (3 yards or less), ranking 30th in the NFL. Where you don't want to be dealing with the Lions' defense is on third-and-short, where Detroit ranks first overall. Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of Green Bay's offense for opponents is the fact that they're almost unstoppable on third-and-long; their DVOA (182.2%) in that situation is far beyond that of any other offense — the New Orleans Saints rank second at 170.4%. Aaron Rodgers has converted 23 of his 34 passing attempts on third-and 3-7 (135 for 17...
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